• Don't discount the Packers offense: Last week, the Packers dominated the Cowboys in one of the most surprising playoff results in recent memory. What wasn’t surprising was the success Jordan Love and the Packers offense found against an overrated Cowboys defense. Last week was not some fluke for this unit, as the Green Bay offense has performed like a genuinely elite unit over the second half of the season.
• We should be in for some fireworks: Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has built a really special offense around Love, a fully healthy Aaron Jones and a deep group of exciting young receivers. In fact, the only offense that has produced the level of production Love and the Packers have is their opponent in this game.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, and it brings with it arguably the best football weekend of the season.
Today, we’ll dive into the matchup between the Packers and 49ers and investigate whether the Packers offense and the 49ers defense are being treated properly in the market.
Packers vs. 49ers best bets:
Packers team total: Over 19.5
Packers: +9.5
Same-game parlay: Packers +9.5 and over 50.5 (+245)
Click here to place these bets!
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 50.5)
Last week, the Packers dominated the Cowboys in one of the most surprising playoff results in recent memory. What wasn’t surprising was the success Jordan Love and the Packers offense found against an overrated Cowboys defense. Last week was not some fluke for this unit, as the Green Bay offense has performed like a genuinely elite unit over the second half of the season.
There is a legitimate argument to be made that Jordan Love has been the best quarterback in the NFL since Week 11. During that span, Love leads all passers in PFF passing grade and EPA+ while ranking second in success rate.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has built a really special offense around Love, a fully healthy Aaron Jones and a deep group of exciting young receivers. In fact, the only offense that has produced the level of production Love and the Packers have is their opponent in this game.
Using our same benchmark of Week 11, these two offenses have been the best in the NFL.
Both offenses have created explosive running and passing plays at top-10 rates, which makes them incredibly difficult to gameplan for. There is no doubt that these units deserve to be rated as the two best in the league going forward.
Their defenses, on the other hand, are very different stories. Despite their surprising success against the Cowboys last week, the Packers defense has easily been one of the league's worst all season. They’ve allowed big games to subpar units and are in no position to limit the well-oiled machine that is the 49ers offense. Although he played last week, Jaire Alexander hasn’t practiced all week and is in serious jeopardy of missing this game, which would make a bad defense even worse.
If you had to guess where the 49ers defense ranks in opponent success rate, I imagine that most would guess top 10, if not top five. Well, this unit has actually been just below average and sits at 17th in the NFL. Although their raw EPA numbers are slightly better, there is a significant disconnect between how this defense is talked about and their actual statistical production.
If we look at season-long numbers, the 49ers run defense has been the eighth-worst in the NFL. If we filter down to their last five games (excluding Week 18, when they rested starters), they have been the fourth-worst in the NFL.
This leaky 49ers run defense is in danger of being exposed against a Packers rushing attack that has ranked top-five in both EPA per rush and success rate during that span.
Despite acquiring edge defender Chase Young in Week 10, the 49ers pass-rush win rate has dropped a full 7.5 percentage points from their season-long rate since that trade. San Francisco should struggle against a Packers offensive line that has graded out as the sixth-best pass-blocking unit this season.
There may be some rain and light wind in San Francisco during this game, which may have a small effect on how well these teams throw the ball. However, those conditions don't look to be incredibly significant and should only have a slight impact on how we forecast this game.
How to Bet this Game
Before we get into how we should play our angle, let’s define it. We think the Packers offense is an elite unit and the 49ers defense is significantly overrated. As for the other side of the ball, we largely agree with the general consensus that the 49ers should be able to light up the scoreboard.
So, how do we bet this opinion? Well, there are a lot of ways to do so, with the purest being the Packers team total of 19.5. There is simply no chance that an elite offense facing an average defense should be expected to put up below-league-average scoring. If you are playing this angle, the over on this total should be your biggest bet of the game.
The Packers are also worth playing at +9.5. Yes, the 49ers have a better offense and defense, but the gap between the units is far less than the market is implying here. I fully think the Packers are live to win this game, making a sprinkle at +350 worthwhile.
Although I do think the total of 50.5 is too low, I prefer to bet the over in a more creative way. If the Packers cover 9.5, I find it unlikely that it will be because their defense somehow shuts down the 49ers offense. It is much more likely that they will cover because their offense scores at least 20-plus, making the over incredibly likely to hit, as well.
So, I love playing the over in a same-game parlay with Packers +9.5 (+245). At that price, we are essentially betting that both bets hit more often than 29% of the time, which means we are betting on two highly correlated outcomes at a price that implies there is very little correlation between the two.
Packers vs. 49ers best bets:
- Packers team total: Over 19.5
- Packers: +9.5
- Same-game parlay: Packers +9.5 and over 50.5 (+245)
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