• Back both offenses: The Cowboys-Packers game has all the makings of an offensive battle, making the over a great play.
• Fade the Eagles against the Buccaneers: Philly has not played well for a long time, and the market hasn’t adjusted to the current version of the team.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
The NFL playoffs have arrived. NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us, and although the selection of games is limited, there are some valuable bets to be made. In this article, we will focus on how teams finished the season to identify squads that aren’t being priced correctly. Let’s get into it.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7, 50.5)
Both of these teams finished the season strong, especially on the offensive end. Over the last eight weeks, these offenses rank second and third in offensive EPA+.
The Packers defense has struggled immensely all season and finished the year as a comfortably bottom-10 unit. Green Bay may also be without its top cornerback, as Jaire Alexander did not practice on Friday. Even if Alexander is healthy, the Packers simply do not have the defensive personnel to limit a Cowboys offense that has put up an absurd 37.4 points per game at home.
If you look at the Cowboys' raw defensive numbers, they appear to be a top-five unit. However, their performance has been highly dependent on the quality of the opponent.
If we adjust their defensive EPA+ and success rate allowed to account for their opponents, Dallas has actually been well below average when facing good offenses, as top-10 units have performed at levels above their usual output against Dallas.
Dallas ‘ defensive metrics are highly misleading because of how well they have beaten up lower-caliber offenses. They have shown no ability to shut down elite offensive teams.
Both recently and over the whole season, the Packers easily qualify as a top-10 offense. Green Bay should be able to move the ball like they have all season against a really overrated Dallas defense.
The on-field matchup is also favorable for the Packers offense. Jordan Love has been better against man coverage this season and will see a lot of it against a Cowboys defense that plays man at a top-three rate in the NFL.
Although Dallas’ cornerbacks have gotten a lot of praise this season, they take a lot of risks that can leave them vulnerable to big gains through the air. Because of that, Love and his talented group of young receivers should be able to hit on some explosive plays down the field.
Best Bet: Over 50.5 (to 51.5)
Both teams should find a lot of success on the offensive side of the ball. There’s no doubt that Dallas will be able to light up the scoreboard, which should force Green Bay to throw the ball at a high rate to keep up. Even with a high total, back this game to be a high-scoring shootout.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 43.5)
The Bucs beat the Panthers last week to lock up the mighty NFC South, and they get to host the Eagles as a result.
Philadelphia is amid a full-blown nose dive, having lost five of their last six games, including back-to-back losses to the lowly Cardinals and Giants.
Although the Eagles were incredibly fortunate to start the year with a 10-1 record, their recent struggles can’t just be categorized as negative regression hitting a team due for some losses. Philadelphia has been substantially worse in almost every aspect of the game recently.
Since Week 14, the Eagles are 28th in NET EPA+. That is just behind the Cardinals and barely ahead of the Patriots. During that same timeframe, the Bucs rank an impressive fourth, thanks to well-above-average play on both sides of the ball.
The main problem for the Eagles has been their defense, which has been the fourth-worst unit over recent weeks. Matt Patricia has somehow been entrusted with playcalling duties, and the results have been awful. A once-feared pass rush has been league-average for a while, allowing teams to take advantage of an aging, overrated secondary.
Teams have also been able to run all over the Eagles all season, as they are bottom-five in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush. It honestly doesn’t really matter what metrics you use to analyze defense — there is no hiding the fact that this Philly unit has been really bad.
Baker Mayfield and company should be able to find success against a defense that should be rated among the worst in the league.
The Eagles’ issues are not limited to the defensive side of the ball, as their passing game just hasn’t been the same since Shane Steichen's departure last offseason. Although the raw numbers look impressive, Philly’s aerial attack has been about league-average for the latter half of the season. Luckily, they’ve been able to run the ball well, as they are one of eight teams with a positive EPA per rush on the year.
Unfortunately, they’ll face a Buccaneers pass-funnel defense that forces offenses to beat them through the air. Tampa has been the third-best run defense in the NFL this season and should be able to limit the Eagles’ stable of running backs.
With star wideout A.J. Brown sidelined and Jalen Hurts playing through a finger injury, I’m not so sure the Eagles will be able to move the ball through the air with ease.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +3 (to PK)
The issues with this Eagles team are real and can’t just be categorized as an uncharacteristic string of bad performances. Philly is not the same team they were earlier in the season, and the market hasn’t fully adjusted to the current version of them. Back a solid Bucs team getting the key number of three in a game they may just win outright.
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