• Helping you get a read on market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
• A bet for the season opener: Buy the movement on the under for Ravens-Chiefs. Wait and see if there is an off-market 47, but the 46.5 still offers value.
• Get ahead of the competition: Sign up for PFF+ to access PFF's betting dashboards, fantasy football start-sit optimizer, weekly fantasy rankings and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Welcome to the first iteration of PFF's weekly midweek market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences. Factors affecting line movement can include injuries, weather conditions and public pick releases, among others.
Hopefully, you can walk away with a deeper understanding of how current market trends have evolved, helping to better inform your betting strategy for the rest of the week.
I'll outline the lookahead, along with the opening and current market consensus prices, and provide some analysis. The lookahead column will be empty for this week only, as these markets have been open since mid-May.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
| Lookahead | Opener | Current | |
| Spread | – | KC -2.5 | KC -3 |
| Total | – | 47.5 | 46.5 |
Spread: The spread opened at 2.5 and stayed there for less than a week before ticking up to 3. Most of the world is painted 3, but you can find a couple of 2.5s.
One thing that’s pretty certain at this point is if you want the +3 on BLT or -2.5 on KC, you’ll have to lay some additional juice to get it, more than the standard -110. This is fairly typical for a market that settles around a key number like 3. Having to lay an additional 10c of juice (-120) means you must win an additional 2.17% of the time to break even on your bet. Betting the NFL is hard enough as is; shop around for the best number, and don’t make it harder on yourself.
Total: The total opened at 47.5 but has gradually dropped to 46.5. While it may seem like a minor shift, 47 is a key number in betting totals, making this movement more significant than it appears at first glance.
Buy/Sell: I’m buying the movement on the under and wouldn’t be afraid to lock in the under 46.5 right now. Over the past few years, Kansas City has been inflated in the totals market, and I see this closing closer to 46 or below. My strategy will be to wait and see if I can find an off-market 47. While there's some risk, even if the market drops to 46 or lower, I'm confident I can still grab a 46.5 at a slower-moving book before the lines adjust. This is a prime example of how timing your market entry can make a difference.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
| Lookahead | Opener | Current | |
| Spread | – | PHI -1 | PHI -2.5 |
| Total | – | 48.5 | 49 |
Spread: It's a similar story here, with the market settling around a key number. Most books have a juiced 2.5 available, except for a couple of books that have made their way to 3. There is no home-field advantage, as this one will be played in Brazil on Friday night, signaling the market's belief that Philadelphia is a meaningfully better team than the Packers.
Total: There is not a ton to report here. It opened at 48.5 in May and hasn’t moved more than a half point in either direction since then. About a week after the Eagles traded for Jahan Dotson trade, we saw the move from 48.5 to 49.
Buy/Sell: I'm buying the Eagles at -2.5 before the line moves to 3, which is where I expect it to close. If you're leaning towards Green Bay, waiting might be wise. The Eagles have consistently gained momentum on game days in recent seasons, especially when betting limits are at their highest.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
| Lookahead | Opener | Current | |
| Spread | – | ATL -2.5 | ATL -3 |
| Total | – | 43 | 42 |
Spread: The line has generally fluctuated between 2.5 and 3 over the summer. At one point, a few respected books dropped as low as ATL -1, largely due to rumors linking the Steelers to star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. However, with Aiyuk staying put and Pittsburgh's inconsistent offensive performance in the preseason, the line has settled at a field goal.
Total: The total dropped to 41 in late August before jumping 2 points on September 1, likely due to a tout group releasing a play around 1:15 p.m. EST. With some experience using an odds screen, these movements become quite noticeable. There was quick buyback on the under at 43, signaling that the market considered the 2-point spike an overreaction to the tout's pick.
Buy/Sell: I’ll support the buyback on the under at 42.5 or better. If you’re leaning that way, now is the time to get in. While the market is at 42, search for a 42.5 — it's out there.
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | CHI -4.5 | CHI -4 |
| Total | – | 43.5 | 45 |
Spread: Things were surprisingly quiet on this front until yesterday afternoon when the Titans began to garner support. This isn’t entirely unexpected, as rookie QBs often face a market fade ahead of their debut games. However, it’s rare to see a rookie QB with the same pedigree as Caleb Williams. Given his potential, this line may see further movement before kickoff.
Total: This is where the market begins to account for changes in Chicago’s offensive structure this season. Another tout release apparently drove the total upward, passing through a few key numbers before finally encountering market resistance at 46.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | HOU -1 | HOU -3 |
| Total | – | 48 | 49 |
Spread: Within 10 days of opening, the spread moved to 2.5 and held there until yesterday. Finally, some money on the Texans came in, pushing the line to 3 for one of the AFC’s emerging teams.
Total: It's a similar story to the total in this game. A relatively sharp opener still has this within a point where it started.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | MIA -3 | MIA -3 |
| Total | – | 49 | 48.5 |
Spread: The line has returned to its original position after briefly reaching MIA -4 at some books. A series of Dolphins injuries is causing the market to adjust, bringing the line back down to where it opened.
Total: What does nearly $500 million in offseason QB contracts get you? It is one of two opening-week games with a total nearing 50 points. It briefly crossed that mark last week but has since dipped back to 48.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Buy/Sell: Give me the Jaguars creeping back to +3. My preference is a reasonably priced +3.5 at -120 or better. If you can’t find it, there are plenty of 3s at +100 that I’d be just as happy to take.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | BUF -7.5 | BUF -6.5 |
| Total | – | 48 | 48.5 |
Spread: The significant move happened months ago when it crossed through a key number of 7. This got as low as 5.5 before settling at 6.5. I’d bet Buffalo is a pretty popular contest play, which, at first glance, might seem like a pretty easy click under a TD.
Total: Nothing exciting here, as it is only .5 off the opener.
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | CIN -9 | CIN -8.5 |
| Total | – | 42.5 | 40.5 |
Spread: This game has stayed in the dead zone between two key numbers, 7 and 10, all summer. A minor move dropped the line to 8.5 after the Patriots announced Jacoby Brissett as the starter due to his experience. If Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase misses the game, we can expect the line to continue falling.
Total: It looks like a tout release drove this total down a couple of points from its opener. I'm not sure this number goes any lower on Chase news, but I’d expect a small jump if he plays.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | NO -5 | NO -4 |
| Total | – | 40 | 42 |
Spread: There was minimal movement until late August when support for Carolina began to emerge. You can find lines ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 depending on which side you're backing, but I anticipate the line to settle at 4 by close.
Total: Another release pushed this total upward, but it has encountered resistance with little support to move it beyond 42.
Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | NYG -1.5 | MIN -1 |
| Total | – | 41 | 41 |
Spread: Flipped favorites! This game became a pick'em just ten days after the market opened. The line has fluctuated over the past two months, with each team holding a 1-point advantage at various points. Recently, there’s been more consistent support for the Vikings during the last week of trading.
Total: Has yet to move below 41 or above 41.5.
Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Vikings at -1 and expect them to close a slightly heavier favorite. If you agree, lock it in now. Sign me up for Sam Darnold in a Kevin O’Connell offense. A bonus buy is Darnold’s MVP price at 200/1. Frankly, I think that’s a bit too high, given the weapons he’ll have at his disposal.
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | SEA -5 | SEA -6 |
| Total | – | 41 | 42 |
Spread: There was a two-week delay before we saw a dip to Seahawks -4. Since then, it’s been all Seahawks cruising back to -6, a half-point at a time. It's a tough place for Bo Nix to make his regular-season debut.
Total: It’s been 42 since early June, and it has hardly budged. A couple of books tested the waters at 42.5 but ultimately returned to the pack.
Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the Seattle momentum and buy the Broncos getting just under a touchdown. There is no harm in waiting here to see if a 6.5 or a 7 shows up at some point before kickoff. If it doesn’t move up, I’ll sit back and smile with a +6.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | LAC -3.5 | LAC -3 |
| Total | – | 43 | 40.5 |
Spread: In August, this spread jumped to LAC -4.5 before steady support for the Raiders drove it back to 3.
Total: There has been steady one-way action pushing the total down by 2.5 points since early August. Much of the offensive firepower we’re used to in this matchup is missing. However, it's worth noting that these backup QBs combined for 84 points in their game last December
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | DAL -2 | CLE -2.5 |
| Total | – | 44 | 42 |
Spread: This is another case of flipped favorites, and it's on the more extreme side. The Browns moved to a pick'em and quickly became 1-point favorites in late June. Since then, the line has steadily climbed to 2.5, with additional juice on the Browns. While consensus power ratings still have Dallas as the stronger team, Cleveland’s home-field advantage appears to be the deciding factor in shaping the line. The Browns' defensive home/road splits from last season are likely playing a role in shaping this line, as well. Is that noise, or is it a signal?
Total: The total has consistently moved downward to 42 over the past few weeks. A few leading indicator books are already showing 41.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues to drop by another point or so.
Buy/Sell: I'm selling the Browns movement, as I believe it's an overreaction to their defensive home/road splits from last season. While most books have the line at 2.5, I've found a +3 for the Cowboys and am locking it in. Even if you don't have access to a +3, I still like the Cowboys at +2.5.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | TB -4 | TB -3.5 |
| Total | – | 41.5 | 43.5 |
Spread: The line opened at 4 but has since settled between 3 and 3.5. With a rookie QB on the road, I'm a bit surprised to see this movement down from the opener.
Total: The total held steady until late August, when it gradually increased and met resistance at 44, likely due to a pick release. This follows a growing trend of influential people or groups with large followings moving the market. The weather could also play a role in this game, as pending storms may impact conditions, making it something worth monitoring closely as we approach kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | DET -3.5 | Det -3.5 |
| Total | – | 50.5 | 50.5 |
Spread: This touched 4 briefly after opening but quickly returned to 3.5. The entire world is pretty much painted 3.5 at this point.
Total: It's the same story with the total. There was not a ton of turnover with these teams from last season, so the openers were pretty spot-on from the market's perspective of this matchup.
New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | – | SF -5 | SF -4.5 |
| Total | – | 44.5 | 43.5 |
Spread:The line quickly jumped from 5 to 6 after opening but dipped as low as 3.5 less than a week ago. While the number has since crept closer to the opener following the Aiyuk extension, there wasn't an immediate reaction to that news. The primary driver for the line movement was the Trent Williams contract situation. The dip to 3.5 directly correlated with his threat to miss the game, and since his re-signing on Tuesday morning, the line has rebounded by a full point.
Total: The market dropped and found resistance at 42.5 yesterday, but it bounced back up to 43.5, where it currently sits.
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