Premium Content Sign Up

NFL Week 1: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights

2TDECJR Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) is introduced before an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

• Chase the high end of C.J. Stroud's potential outcomes: Bet the over on his alt line of 325-plus passing yards in a matchup with a Colts team that may struggle to generate pressure.

• Expect plenty of targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown: Take the over on his 7.5 receptions line, as St. Brown excels against zone and the Rams are expected to play a lot of it.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season betting tools, including PFF Greenline, PFF Best Bets, PFF Power Ratings and more! Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes


This offseason, we worked on developing”Key Insights,” a new data-driven tool that should help provide betting guidance throughout the year. Those insights look for strength-on-weakness matchups that could be meaningful through a player prop lens and should begin populating on PFF player pages as the season progresses.

To give a peak behind the curtain at the kind of information those insights provide, here are four of my favorite Week 1 player prop bets stemming from the first run of our Key Insights tool.

Note: For the first few weeks of the NFL season, we will use a weighted average of prior-season metrics since there is no 2024 data to work with.

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr