• Keep an eye on Brandin Cooks on TNF: Cooks has gotten more involved in the Dallas offense over the last few weeks, having racked up 396 yards and four touchdowns over his last six games. He'll see a ton of Devon Witherspoon, the highest-graded rookie cornerback in the NFL, on Thursday. Witherspoon should be able to match Cooks' quickness, making this a favorable matchup for Seattle.
• Seattle a safe bet to cover? The Cowboys have not lost at home this season, and every game has been a 20-plus point victory. But Dallas hasn’t yet hosted an opponent like the Seahawks at AT&T Stadium. Look for the Cowboys to win but for the Seahawks to cover the 9-point spread.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9)
Matchup to watch: Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon
Cooks has gotten more involved in the offense over the last few weeks and has racked up 396 yards and four touchdowns over his last six games. He'll see a ton of Witherspoon, the highest-graded rookie cornerback in the NFL, on Thursday. Witherspoon should be able to match Cooks' quickness, making this a favorable matchup for Seattle.
Fantasy breakout: Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Dallas has two really good cornerbacks in DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, but both play on the outside. That will leave Jourdan Lewis (49.1 PFF grade) matched up against Smith-Njigba (62.7) in the slot. This is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys, one the Seahawks should be able to exploit early and often.
Favorite bet: Seahawks +9
The Cowboys have not lost at home this season, and every game has been a 20-plus point victory. But Dallas hasn’t yet hosted an opponent like the Seahawks at AT&T Stadium. Look for the Cowboys to win, but for the Seahawks to cover the 9-point spread.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Titans edge HAROLD LANDRY III
Landry has struggled this year, possibly due to the injury that ended his 2022 campaign. He doesn't look like the same athlete and hasn't been nearly as productive as a pass-rusher, given that he's managed just 21 pressures across 260 pass-rush snaps. He'll have another tough assignment in Week 13, as Smith is healthy and back to playing at a high level.
Fantasy breakout: Colts RB Zack Moss
With Jonathan Taylor (thumb) expected to miss the next few weeks, Moss is right back to being an RB1 moving forward. The Titans have one of the NFL's worst defenses, and Moss should see plenty of action in a game the Colts need to win to keep pace in the AFC wild-card chase. Start Moss confidently in Week 13, as he should see 18-plus touches on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)
The Titans have struggled to score points all season, and that will likely be the case again on Sunday. They are down several key offensive linemen, and the Colts have one of the better pass-rush units in the NFL. Look for this to be a 20-17 type of game, with the under ultimately hitting in Tennessee.
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) vs. New England Patriots
Matchup to watch: Chargers WR Keenan Allen vs. Patriots CB J.C. Jackson
Could this be a J.C. Jackson revenge game on Sunday? The Chargers traded him back to the Patriots earlier this offseason, but that move hasn't panned out just yet. Expect Jackson to see plenty of his former teammate in Keenan Allen, who is coming off three straight 100-yard performances.
Fantasy breakout: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
After back-to-back huge seasons in 2021 and 2022, Ekeler has been held in check for most of the 2023 season. He averages just 3.8 yards per carry and has only scored five touchdowns in eight games. But this is a good matchup for him in Week 13, as the Patriots have struggled against athletic running backs in the passing game. Look for Ekeler to catch five-plus passes and go over 100 yards on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Chargers -6
It's hard to trust the 4-7 Chargers to cover a touchdown spread, but the Patriots can't score. They don't have a quarterback, and their lack of weapons in the passing game is alarming. Look for the Chargers to get this win in New England and to cover the 6-point spread.
Detroit Lions (-4) vs. New Orleans Saints
Matchup to watch: Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Saints edge Cameron Jordan
If you like watching good trench play, look no further than this matchup. Sewell has been the NFL's best right tackle this year, with his 88.9 overall grade good for first at the position. He'll face a seasoned veteran in Cameron Jordan, who is just as productive as ever. Jordan has excellent size, which should be able to give Sewell some problems, but the athleticism favors the third-year tackle from Oregon.
Fantasy breakout: Lions RB David Montgomery
Montgomery has been a must-start option for most of the 2023 season, but this could be his best game yet. The Saints are one of the league’s worst teams against the run, and the Lions will want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Look for Montgomery to have another multi-touchdown game in New Orleans.
Favorite bet: Lions -4
The Saints are a mess right now, especially on offense. And on defense, they allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week 12. With the Lions having 10 days to prepare for this game, look for them to win and cover. They should have no problem putting up a bunch of points on the road in New Orleans.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. New York Jets
Matchup to watch: Falcons LG Matthew Bergeron vs. Jets DT Quinnen Williams
Bergeron was the highest-graded guard in Week 12, helping the Falcons run for over 200 yards against the Saints. He’ll have a tough assignment in Week 13 with Quinnen Williams, who is having the best season of his career. If Bergeron can survive against the Jets, it'll be an excellent sign for his long-term future.
Fantasy breakout: Jets RB Breece Hall
Hall was held to 25 yards on seven carries against the Dolphins, but he did manage to catch seven passes. This game should be much more competitive, and the Jets should have an easier time running the ball. Look for Hall to get 16-plus touches against the Falcons and get into the end zone at least once.
Favorite bet: Jets +3
The Jets are home underdogs once again, but this time, they'll face a young quarterback in Desmond Ridder, who has struggled since returning to the starting lineup. The Jets should be able to contain this rushing attack, which should keep this game close. Take the Jets and the points at home in Week 13.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals RT Paris Johnson Jr. vs. Steelers edge T.J. Watt
Paris Johnson Jr. has been the Cardinals' starter at right tackle all year, but this might be his toughest challenge yet. Watt is the NFL's fifth-highest-graded edge defender through 12 weeks and is tied for the league lead in sacks (14). If Johnson can contain Watt, the Cardinals might have a chance to create chunk plays in the passing game. If not, it'll be a long day at the office for Kyler Murray and the rest of the offense.
Fantasy breakout: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren
Warren was disappointed in Week 12, rushing for only 49 yards on 13 carries. He didn't get into the end zone and fumbled in the red zone. But this game sets up well for him, with the Cardinals struggling to stop the run. Kyren Williams just rushed for 143 yards on 16 carries against the Cardinals last week, and Warren has been even more dynamic this season. Make sure Warren is in your lineup.
Favorite bet: Steelers -5.5
The Steelers have found something with their run game over the last month. They are starting to move teams off the ball, allowing Pittsburgh to keep their defense off the field. Take the Steelers -5.5 and expect them to win by at least a touchdown over the banged-up Cardinals in Week 13.
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Matchup to watch: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Commanders CB Kendall Fuller
It's always fun to see how opponents match up against Tyreek Hill, and this week will be no different. The Commanders have struggled to stop elite receivers all season and will have their hands full on Sunday. Expect Fuller to see a ton of Hill, but for the Commanders to play a bunch of Cover-2 to protect themselves against big plays.
Fantasy breakout: Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
Waddle had a really nice game against the Jets, catching all eight of his targets for 114 yards. But he hasn’t scored since the end of October. Expect that to change in Week 13, as he should get into the end zone at least once against the Commanders.
Favorite bet: Under 50 points (-110)
The Commanders allowed 45 points to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but they are home and recently fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. The Dolphins will still put up points, but expecting over 50 points to be scored here is a bit of a stretch. Take the under here, as this is way too many points for a December game in Washington.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos RT Mike McGlinchey vs. Texans edge WILL ANDERSON JR.
After a rocky start to the season, McGlinchey has graded above 65.0 in each of his last four games. But this could be a tough challenge for him in Week 13, as Anderson has fantastic athleticism and bend around the edge. If the Broncos want to have a productive day on offense, they’ll need to find a way to contain Anderson.
Fantasy breakout: Texans WR Tank Dell
At this point, Dell is a must-start play every week going forward. He finished Week 12 with five catches for 50 yards and a score, but it could have been a much bigger day if not for a few penalties (and missed calls) that robbed him of huge gains. Denver could struggle to match his speed and quickness in Week 12, making him a WR2 (at worst) on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Broncos +3.5
The Broncos are on a five-game winning streak despite their offense still struggling. But the defense has been significantly better over the last month. They'll be challenged against the Texans, but expect Denver to keep this game within a field goal. Both sides need this win to stay alive in the AFC wild-card hunt. Expect it to be a hard-fought and relatively low-scoring contest.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke vs. Panthers edge Brian Burns
Goedeke has had an excellent sophomore season with the Buccaneers after transitioning from guard to tackle, raising his PFF grade from 46.7 to 73.8. But this could be a rough day for him on Sunday, as Burns is one of the most explosive edge rushers in the league. Look for the Buccaneers to give Goedeke a lot of help to help slow down the Panthers' best defensive player.
Fantasy breakout: Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin
The Panthers have had problems at cornerback all year, and it's only gotten worse since the injuries started to mount up. Godwin has played all over for the Buccaneers this season, but expect him to see a heavy dose of C.J. Henderson. Advantage: Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Favorite bet: Panthers +5.5
The Panthers fired Frank Reich this week, which usually inspires the team for a week or two. While we aren't predicting that the Panthers will win this game outright, expect them to keep it close against the Buccaneers in this NFC South showdown.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup to watch: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. Eagles CB Darius Slay
The NFL’s most improved player this year might be Brandon Aiyuk, who ranks second to only Tyreek Hill at PFF grade at the position. He'll see a ton of Darius Slay on Sunday in a matchup that favors San Francisco. Look for the 49ers to get Aiyuk involved early and often as they try to attack the Eagles' secondary down the field.
Fantasy breakout: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel
Samuel has been quite vocal about his disdain for the Eagles this year, and now that he is fully healthy, he should be in for a big game. Look for the 49ers to find ways to get him matched up against the Eagles linebackers, who struggle mightily in coverage. And don't be surprised if this is a 10-plus touch day for Samuel in Week 13.
Favorite bet: Eagles +3
The 49ers have the rest advantage (10 days) and are pretty healthy coming into this matchup. But the Eagles are at home and are getting three points. They also have the better quarterback and offensive line, which could be the difference in this matchup. Expect a tight contest but for the Eagles to cover the 3-point spread.
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Rams RG Kevin Dotson vs. Browns DT Dalvin Tomlinson
One of the most surprising developments from this season has been the play of Kevin Dotson. Traded from the Steelers this offseason, Dotson is the top-graded guard in the NFL. He’s been fantastic for the Rams, especially as a run-blocker. He'll see a ton of Dalvin Tomlinson in Week 13, one of the top run-stopping defensive tackles in the NFL. This should be a tremendous battle to watch play out on Sunday afternoon.
Fantasy breakout: Rams WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp played most of the offensive snaps against the Cardinals in Week 12 but was held to 18 yards on five targets. He has scored just one touchdown this season and has been held to 127 yards in his last five games. But with Denzel Ward (shoulder) likely out in this game, Kupp could have a big day from the slot. Keep him in your lineup as a FLEX play in Week 13 and hope he returns to his All-Pro form.
Favorite bet: Rams -3.5
The Browns are really struggling to score on offense right now, given all of their quarterback injuries. It’s not yet known who will start on Sunday, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson dealing with a concussion. Regardless of who is at quarterback, the Rams are the best bet here, with their offense starting to click. Take the Rams at home in a game where they should be able to hold the Browns under 17 points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed
Watson finally had a big performance and caught four passes on the first two drives against the Lions. He is still searching for his first 100-yard performance of the season, and it’s unlikely to come in this game. Sneed has struggled some this year, but he is one of the most physical cornerbacks in the league. Look for him to give Watson some issues on the outside, especially at the line of scrimmage.
Fantasy breakout: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
Rice has been named a fantasy breakout for several weeks and continues to reward the faithful. Rice had his first 100-yard game of his career in Week 12, catching eight passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. He is averaging a whopping 9.4 yards per target on the season, and his role in the offense continues to grow. Keep him in your lineup as a FLEX play this week against the Packers.
Favorite bet: Packers +6.5
The Packers have played well over the last few weeks and got an upset win over the Lions in Week 12. They'll have 10 days to prepare for the Chiefs, who don't quite look right on offense. Take the Chiefs to win, but expect the Packers to keep this game close. Getting the Packers at +6.5 at home is pretty good value.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Matchup to watch: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Bengals CB Mike Hilton
Hilton is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league because of everything he can do. He is fantastic in the run game and one of the best slot blitzers you will see. However, he can be exposed in coverage, especially against top-tier receivers. Look for the Jaguars to go after him early, often with Kirk mainly playing in the slot this season.
Fantasy breakout: Jaguars TE Evan Engram
The Bengals have had significant issues stopping tight ends all season and just allowed Pat Freiermuth to go over 100 yards in Week 12. Engram should have a monster day against the Bengals over the middle of the field.
Favorite bet: Under 38.5 (-110)
It's hard to see the Bengals scoring much in this contest. They have one of the NFL's worst rushing attacks, and the offensive line has been a problem all year. Last week, the two biggest plays from the Bengals were tipped passes that Ja’Marr Chase caught. Expecting them to score more than 13 points feels like a stretch, so take the under here and expect a 24-10 type of game in Jacksonville.
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