• Bet on Puka Nacua to go OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel): It would take a good deal of luck, either with a broken coverage or a chunk play after the catch, for this number to go over.
• Bet on Ezekiel Elliott to go UNDER 17.5 rushing attempts (-113 FanDuel): New England's offense is struggling overall, so staying on the field against one of the league’s better secondaries will prove difficult.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
NFL action on Saturday means fewer betting options on Sunday, and weather concerns abound. Lines will move over the day based on various reports, so we will avoid discussing any bets that may quickly change at sportsbooks.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints — Tommy DeVito Under 32.5 Longest Pass Completion (-111 Caesars)
Giants undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito is the talk of the town after three straight wins. But this is a step up for him as far as pass defenses go. The Saints, despite losing cornerback Marshon Lattimore, have been stout against the pass — especially on the outside, which limits the downfield ability of this offense, which doesn't pass the ball deep often anyway.
Checkdowns to running backs and line-of-scrimmage passes to slot receivers are the name of the game for the Giants' passing offense, and although DeVito has completed long passes in recent weeks, their scheme presents limited opportunities. It would take a good deal of luck, either with a broken coverage or a chunk play after the catch, for this number to go over. Both the Saints and Giants are going to run the ball a lot and throw underneath the coverage, so the clock will be running throughout this game.
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams — Puka Nacua Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
This is the best possible matchup for Nacua, the star rookie receiver. Cooper Kupp will take up some attention against a struggling secondary, and Kyren Williams’ rushing ability will force the Commanders to stay disciplined in the box.
That leaves opportunities for Nacua on the outside in one-on-one situations, and he has done an exceptional job at exploiting such chances this year. The Commanders' outside cornerback group is one of the leakiest units in the NFL. They have allowed the second-highest personnel-adjusted yards per route run figure to opposing outside wide receivers since Week 9.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs — Ezekiel Elliott Under 17.5 Rush Attempts (-113 FanDuel)
With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Elliott is playing close to 100% of the Patriots' offensive snaps. That is not ideal for betting unders, but New England's offense is struggling overall, so staying on the field against one of the league’s better secondaries will prove difficult.
The Chiefs do not play at a fast pace, and they are also not often throwing the ball downfield, but they will create long drives against a struggling defense. And if they score, as we know they have the potential to do, the Patriots' need to pass will grow and Elliott may find most of his work coming in the receiving game rather than on the ground.
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