• Trust the Indianapolis Colts as small favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders’ recent success is far from sustainable, and they should come back down to earth against a solid Colts squad.
• Back the New York Giants as home underdogs versus the Los Angeles Rams: Tyrod Taylor is a significant upgrade at quarterback for a Giants team that has an ideal schematic matchup.
• Mike Evans is in a smash spot: A key injury in the Saints' secondary puts Evans in a position to go off.
• $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The penultimate week of the NFL regular season is upon us and brings massive implications for one of the tightest playoff races in recent history.
We’ll identify a team to fade whose recent winning streak is simply unsustainable, and we’ll also buy a team that finds itself in a great schematic matchup after a recent quarterback switch. Finally, we’ll back a receiver who is ready to explode. Let’s get into it.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-4, 42.5)
The Raiders stunned the football world by upsetting the Chiefs on Christmas Day in Week 16. However, Kansas City essentially handed them the victory, as Vegas somehow scored defensive touchdowns on back-to-back plays. Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders' offense had little going for them all game and were bailed out by those defensive scores.
If we just look at their expected points added numbers since Week 12, the Raiders appear to have been playing above-average football, ranking 12th in Weighted NET EPA+, which gives teams more credit for offensive production. But if we look at their NET success rate, which strips away the noisy big plays the Raiders have benefited from, they drop to 28th.
Much of Las Vegas' success can be attributed to turnover differential, as the team has gained the third-most EPA on turnovers since Week 12. Once the rate at which these big turnovers occur regresses, the Raiders' output will begin to match that of a near-bottom-five team in the league.
The Colts, on the other hand, can be confidently rated as a middle-of-the-pack team with the potential to explode offensively on any given Sunday, thanks to head coach Shane Steichen. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has been playing well with Steichen at the helm and should have his full stable of weapons available in this game after Michael Pittman Jr. was a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday.
Indianapolis has also been hurt by some recent late-down variance on offense, which has limited their ability to stay on the field. On early downs, the Colts have found success at a high rate and have the seventh-best EPA+. Unfortunately, they have struggled on late downs on their way to the sixth-worst EPA+. As these highly influential late-down outcomes even out, the Colts will be able to extend drives and score at a higher rate.
Best Bet: Colts -4 (to -5.5)
The Raiders' recent fortunate success is causing them to be rated too highly in the market. An average team like the Colts should be more than four-point favorites at home against a significantly below-average team like Las Vegas.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants (+6, 43.5)
The Giants will turn to veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor in Week 17 after Tommy DeVito‘s continued struggles to produce. With Taylor at the helm, the Giants should be upgraded in the market, as he has been by far the team’s best option this season.
Both DeVito and Daniel Jones rank in the bottom-11th percentile in success rate among all quarterbacks, while Taylor ranks in the 55th percentile.
The move to Taylor could not come at a better time, as the Rams present him with an ideal schematic matchup. On his somewhat limited snaps, Taylor has been incredible when facing zone coverage, ranking second out of 48 quarterbacks in QB EPA+. When facing man coverage, Taylor has been the worst quarterback in the NFL.
We are dealing with relatively small sample sizes here, but this extreme split bodes well for Taylor against a Rams defense that plays zone at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford has a difficult schematic matchup against a Giants defense that plays man coverage at the highest rate in the league. This season, Stafford has produced at a 90th-percentile rate against zone coverage but has dropped to the 36th percentile against man.
The Rams' passing offense may struggle to move the ball against a Giants defense that has been among the NFL's stingiest when playing man coverage over the past five weeks.
Los Angeles has relied on big plays through the air to score this season, creating 20-plus-yard passing plays at the fifth-best rate in the league. However, the Giants have been a top-10 team at limiting those big gains.
With their passing game limited, Rams head coach Sean McVay may look to lean on his running back Kyren Williams against a below-average Giants run defense. Although Los Angeles may be able to find some success on the ground, this game plan will bleed the clock out quickly and make it difficult for them to win by a large margin.
Best Bet: Giants +6 (to +4.5)
The market is not sufficiently accounting for the upgrade that Tyrod Taylor represents or the Giants' ideal schematic matchup. Back New York to keep it close.
Player Prop Best Bet: Mike Evans OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Evans has had some legendary battles with the Saints, largely due to the presence of shutdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Well, Lattimore won’t be active this week and Evans is in a prime position to erupt. New Orleans plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, which is great news for Evans. Against man coverage, the Tampa Bay receiver has the second-highest target share in the NFL (36%).
The Saints deploy single-high man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL. Evans has shredded that look all season and should be able to produce big numbers against a New Orleans secondary missing its top cornerback.
No Saints cornerback is taller than 6-foot-1, which means Evans will have at least a 4-inch height advantage on any defender who matches up with him.
Back Evans to clear this number and sprinkle on some alternate overs at plus money.
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