• Helping you get a read on market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
• A bet for TNF: Sell the movement on the under and lock in the over 49 right now. There are a few 48.5s out there, but don't lay more than -115 to get one.
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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences. Factors affecting line movement can include injuries, weather conditions and public pick releases, among others.
We usher in a new wave of markets with only a week to react instead of the months we had for last week’s games. With that, we also welcome lookahead lines.
Lookahead lines are betting odds that sportsbooks release before the current week's games are played. They give bettors a chance to bet on next week's matchups, even though this week's games haven't happened yet.
For example, if it’s Week 2 in the NFL, a sportsbook might release “lookahead lines” for Week 3 games. These lines can shift dramatically based on how teams perform in their current games, injuries or other factors. In essence, these lines allow you to bet on future games before all the information (like injuries or surprising performances) is available.
They are a data point to consider but don’t fall into the trap of anchoring yourself to these numbers as a source of truth. They can be a useful tool for gauging how much a market is reacting to recent information.
You'll also find situational factors for each game, which are often reflected in the betting line. These factors can offer valuable insight into why a line may seem unusual. Without understanding those situational factors, some may label these matchups as “trap games,” where the betting line seems misleading or too good to be true.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | MIA -1.5 | MIA -1.5 | MIA -2.5 |
| Total | 51 | 50 | 49 |
Spread: This spread has bounced back and forth between 1.5 and 2.5 over the last 48 hours. Both teams are coming off a win, but they are non-cover. I don’t see a world where this crosses 3. If you’re looking to buy into the Bills, I prefer their current moneyline price at +115 or better than a standard +2.5.
Total: A 1-point adjustment at each iteration of our market outlook has seen this total drop to 49. We’ve seen some signals that the market may not let this drop below 48.5. In addition to the Dolphins offense failing to meet market expectations last week, injuries to De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are contributing here.
Situational Factors: The Bills will have to navigate some heat and humidity on a short week as they travel to Miami. The Dolphins stay put to finish their two-game homestand to open the season.
Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the movement on the under and lock in the over 49 right now. There are a few 48.5s out there, but I wouldn’t lay more than -115 to get one. I see this as buying the floor price and getting ahead of the market if Achane is active for Thursday Night Football.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BLT: 7.5 | BLT -8 | BLT -9.5 |
| Total | 44 | 42 | 41.5 |
Spread: This has traded through the dead zone and hit +10 at a select few books. For the most part, we have seen immediate resistance once it hits that point — 9.5 or 10 seems like it’ll be the sweet spot for where this one closes.
Total: Steadily dipped to as low as the key number 41 before bouncing back to 41.5. Lamar Jackson did pop on the injury report with soreness on Tuesday, but that came after this dip in the market.
Situational Factors: The Ravens have a couple of big advantages. They are coming off a Thursday night game with a few extra days of rest, while the Raiders are also coming across the coast for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. DETROIT LIONS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DET -6.5 | DET -5.5 | -7 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48 | 51.5 |
Spread: Immediate money came in on the Lions after opening below the lookahead line. This got out to 7 within a couple of hours and, for the most part, has stayed there. Four of the Bucs' defensive backs suffered injuries in their blowout win over the Commanders, which isn't ideal before a trip to Detroit. If we see a -7.5 surface, I’d love the Lions as a teaser leg.
Total: The spread isn’t the only factor impacted by Tampa Bay’s cluster of injuries in the defensive backfield; the total has also moved more than 3 points since it opened.
Buy/Sell: I’m buying into the over 51.5. Despite a hefty move already, I don't think this one is done yet. While Jameson Williams had a coming-out party on SNF, I think Amon-Ra St. Brown will get in on the party this week.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DAL -6 | DAL -7 | -6.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 45.5 | 46 |
Spread: Dallas lasted all of an hour as a 7-point favorite before coming back down to 6.5. Some books have gotten to as low as 6, but there’s a strong chance this closes at 6.5 exactly. Both teams are coming off convincing wins and have managed to stay relatively healthy.
Total: Slight adjustment saw this peak at 46.5 before coming down a notch. It's the same story with the spread; the market seems to be on top of this matchup.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LAC -3.5 | LAC -5.5 | LAC -6.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 39.5 | 39 |
Spread: Although the Chargers walked away with an impressive division win in Jim Harbaugh’s debut, this is a pretty significant reaction to the Panthers' 47-10 loss. Slow and steady, money has been coming in on the Chargers, and that money has yet to be met with market resistance. Keep in mind the Chargers do need to go cross country for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
Total: There is not a ton to report here. It went up to 40 and then shortly fell back down to 39. This is a semi-significant move compared to the lookahead line, likely tied to Harbaugh bringing some of his Michigan principles to the West Coast.
Buy/Sell: They say it’s better late than never, and that’s what I’ll say, too, while taking the Chargers at -6.5. I think this closes at a touchdown.
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | JAX -2 | JAX -2.5 | JAX -3 |
| Total | 44.5 | 42 | 41.5 |
Spread: Jacksonville quickly moved to a 3-point favorite shortly after opening. It’s gone as high as 4 before settling back in at 3. I do not see this crossing back below 3. Cleveland will have to deal with similar issues as Buffalo, traveling to Florida and dealing with some heat and humidity.
Total: The drop in the total from the lookahead line to the opening line is likely due to both offenses underperforming in Week 1. Another slight dip took place after opening at 42, but the market wouldn’t let this one get below 41.
Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Jags' initial movement and lay -3. It's looking like you’ll need to lay -115 to get it, but that’s perfectly fine with me.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | GB -4.5 | IND -3 | IND -3 |
| Total | 47 | 41 | 41 |
Spread: This is one of the biggest line shifts you'll see from the lookahead to the opener, moving from 3 to 3.5 and staying there. It’s unlikely to drop below 3 unless we get a miraculous Jordan Love appearance.
Total: There’s been a clear drop-off with Love’s injury, but the opener at 41 was relatively sharp. There’s been some disagreement on the total, with the highest mark at 42 and the lowest at 40.5.
Buy/Sell: Give me the Colts at -3 at -115 or better. It’s a huge move, but I don’t think it’s enough.
Situational Factors: The Packers get a couple of days of extra rest, which will be extremely meaningful as they have to gear Malik Willis up to start (he’s only been with the organization for two weeks). On the flip side, part of that extra rest was spent on a 10-hour flight from Brazil.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | SEA -4 | SEA -3 | SEA -3 |
| Total | 41 | 39.5 | 38 |
Spread: Despite a few attempts to push Seattle past -3, any 3.5s have been quickly bought back. The market clearly feels that an expensive -3 for the Seahawks or +3.5 for the Patriots is the right price for this game. It's another instance of a West Coast team traveling east for an early kickoff.
Total: A pick release on the under took this down from 39.5 to 38. There has been almost no movement outside of that.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | SF -6.5 | SF -5 | SF -6 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44.5 | 45 |
Spread: This reopened at 6 after MNF, which is exactly where it still sits. It was no Christian McCaffrey, no problem for the 49ers against the Jets. The uncertainty around McCaffrey's availability and Darnold’s impressive opener are keeping this below a touchdown. I believe that’s where it will remain.
Total: Not a whole lot here either. The market has quickly found a consensus at 45.
Situational Factors: The Vikings have the advantage here, as the 49ers are hitting the road to Minnesota on short rest after playing on MNF.
NEW YORK JETS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | NYJ -4 | NYJ -5 | NYJ -3.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 44 |
Spread: The Titans are on the receiving end of some steam, moving down to +3.5 after opening +5. This is after a surprising loss in a game where they led 17-0 and didn’t allow an offensive touchdown. The most shocking part is they didn’t even cover the +4 against Chicago.
Total: This total reopened at 43 after MNF. Shortly after that, a pick release drove this line all the way down to 40.5. We’ve not seen any meaningful action to drive the market back toward the opener.
Situational Factors: Similar to the 49ers, the Jets will be on the road on short rest after playing on MNF. This is their second consecutive road game to start the season.
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | WAS -2.5 | WAS -2.5 | WAS -1.5 |
| Total | 42 | 41 | 43.5 |
Spread: The market didn’t believe Jayden Daniels should be a 3-point favorite in his home debut, as we’ve seen a steady stream of Giants money to this point driving the number down.
Total: The total held at 41 for just over 24 hours before a pick release pushed it up to 44. The market then pulled it back to settle at 43.5. However, there are still plenty of 44s and even a 44.5 available if you think a 3.5-point adjustment is an overreaction.
Buy/Sell: I’ll be one of the aforementioned people who thinks a 3.5-point adjustment is just too much. Sign me up for the under 44.5 before it’s gone. A 44 is also tolerable if it’s the best you can find.
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LA -2.5 | PK | ARZ -1.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 49 | 49 |
Spread: The favorites have flipped as the Rams deal with injuries in the trenches. The line briefly reached Cards -2 but has since held steady at -1.5.
Total: This took a quick trip up to 50 before coming back down to the opening number. Some market indicators are saying this may keep heading down, but I don’t see it being meaningful enough to get involved.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | KC -4 | KC -6 | KC -6 |
| Total | 48.5 | 46 | 47.5 |
Spread: There's an even split between books offering 5.5 and 6. While Andy Reid is notoriously dangerous with extra rest, this is approaching a high number. If you're eyeing the Bengals at +6, this might be your last chance before it dips below, especially if Higgins is cleared to play.
Total: Once again, I am here to tell you a pick release took this total as high as 48.5 before dropping back down to 47.5
Buy/Sell: I’m buying into what I expect to be the last opportunity for a Bengals +6. I don’t love it, but I do love the closing line value I expect to receive.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | PIT -3 | PIT -2.5 | PIT -3 |
| Total | 40.5 | 38 | 36.5 |
Spread: Get used to the trend of the Steelers being involved in games with a roughly 3-point spread. This line quickly moved from 2.5 to 3, peaking at 4 before settling on an expensive +3 for the Broncos. If it dips below 3 again, expect to pay extra juice to back Pittsburgh.
Total: Nothing specific is driving the market, just a steady decline in the total. Currently, 36.5 is the standard number across most books.
CHICAGO BEARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | HOU -3.5 | HOU -7 | HOU -6.5 |
| Total | 47 | 46 | 45.5 |
Spread: The Bears are pushing the envelope here on how much a team can be downgraded off of a win and cover without an injury to the QB. After opening at 7, some books have held steady, and others have dipped below a touchdown. This is lined right in the middle of 6.5 and 7.
Total: The slightest of movements down from 46 to 45.5 at most books. We remain in a holding pattern, but 45.5 feels right.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | PHI -4 | PHI -6.5 | PHI -6.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 47 |
Spread: A clear market downgrade for the Falcons, whose new-look offense was held to 10 points at home in Week 1. Eagles hold the rest advantage here, with the caveat of having a long flight home from Brazil.
Total: The total dropped suddenly from the opener, reiterating the concern for Atlanta’s offense. It’ll click at some point, but the market needs to see it first.
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