• Back Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The Miami Dolphins haven't faced many pass attempts this season, largely due to unusual game scripts. However, early trends suggest that their defense is developing into a pass funnel, making them far easier to pass against than to run on. No team has a bigger discrepancy between their EPA allowed per pass compared to per run. Opposing offenses are averaging 0.62 EPA per play more when passing against the Dolphins than when running.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from a single game into one wager, increasing the potential payout.
Our SGP picks are built around specific game narratives that the data suggests could unfold, with insight into how key players and matchups may impact the outcome.
Here are our top SGP picks for this week based on these data-driven narratives.
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith leans on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in big passing day
The Miami Dolphins haven't faced many pass attempts this season, largely due to unusual game scripts. However, early trends suggest that their defense is developing into a pass funnel, making them far easier to pass against than to run on. No team has a bigger discrepancy between their EPA allowed per pass compared to per run. Opposing offenses are averaging 0.62 EPA per play more when passing against the Dolphins than when running.
Courtesy of Sam Hoppen, we can also see that Seattle has passed far more than expected this season, a trend that has continued from the last few years where they have been one of the past-heaviest teams in the NFL. So, this Seahawks team should be throwing often and successfully against this Miami defense.
Enter Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba has been targeted on 31% of his routes this season, trailing only Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin and Malik Nabers. He is no longer the third option in the Seahawks offense; he’s now playing a full complement of snaps and could very well be Geno Smith’s top target moving forward.
JSN primarily lines up in the slot, where he’ll face off against Kader Kohou. Kohou has struggled mightily this season, ranking last in several key cornerback metrics, including PFF’s on-ball grading and separation allowed.
This mismatch could pave the way for a breakout performance from Smith-Njigba in what should be a high-volume passing day for Seattle.
SGP Build: 65-1 on Fanatics
- QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 300+ passing yards
- Seattle Seahawks: -5.5
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6+ catches
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 110+ receiving yards
Minnesota Vikings WR Jalen Nailor Continues Breakout with Big Day Against Houston Texans
It’s still early in the season, but Jalen Nailor has emerged as a standout for the Vikings, excelling in both separation and yards after catch (YAC). He currently holds the highest PFF catch-point and YAC grades of any wide receiver in the NFL. When looking at underlying numbers, Nailor’s profile is among the most promising, and his breakout is well underway.
Nailor is set to continue his role as Minnesota’s No. 2 wide receiver, having run a route on 31 of the team's 32 dropbacks last week against the 49ers. He is expected to see significant playing time again in this matchup against Houston.
One of the key factors in Nailor’s potential success is his deep target profile. He boasts an 18-yard average depth of target (aDOT), making him a threat in exactly the area where the Texans' defense is vulnerable. Houston has allowed the second-highest depth of target faced this season at 10.6 yards per attempt. This gives Nailor the chance to capitalize on deep shots, providing the opportunity for a huge performance.
SGP Build: 45-1 on Bet365
- WR Jalen Nailor: 100+ Yards
- WR Jalen Nailor: 7+ receptions
San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings Steps Up in the Absence of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle
Jauan Jennings has often played behind the star-studded weapons in the 49ers offense, including Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey. However, in his limited snaps, Jennings has impressed with above-average separation and strong post-catch ability.
Now, with Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey sidelined, Jennings is primed for a much larger role in a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams' defense has struggled mightily in coverage this season, allowing the highest yards per attempt (YPA) in the league and ranking near the bottom in most coverage metrics.
While some may be cautious about Brock Purdy’s passing output due to the injuries, Jennings has the potential to shine in this spot. His ability to step up when given the opportunity makes him a player to watch as the 49ers look to take advantage of a vulnerable Rams defense.
SGP Build: 55-1 on DraftKings
- QB Brock Purdy: 300+ passing yards
- Jauan Jennings: 100+ receiving yards
- San Francisco 49ers: -6.5
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