• Back the Detroit Lions to get right against the Denver Broncos: Detroit’s recent struggles are unsustainable. Dan Campbell's team should return to early-season form in Week 15.
• Both teams' recent results have come down to variance: Since Week 10, the Lions have generated the ninth-most expected points added (EPA) on first and second downs, only to lose the most EPA of any team on third and fourth downs. The opposite has been true for a Denver team that has been around league-average on early downs but third-best in terms of NET EPA+ on those key late downs.
• $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Week 15 of the NFL season has arrived and provides us with the season's first iteration of Saturday Night Football.
This should be one of the best football weekends of the regular season, as it features three Saturday games between teams with winning records and some marquee matchups on Sunday.
In this article, we’ll identify a team that has had some brutal luck recently and is in a terrific bounce-back spot. Let’s get into it.
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (-4.5, 48)
The Saturday nightcap brings together two teams entrenched in the playoff race. The Lions have struggled recently and squandered a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC with two losses in the last three weeks. However, a good percentage of their poor performances can be attributed to bad luck, as they have lost a huge amount of expected points on notoriously unsustainable plays in late-down outcomes and turnovers.
On the other hand, Denver’s recent success can be almost solely attributed to positive variance in these two areas of the game.
Since Week 10, the Lions have generated the ninth-most expected points added (EPA) on first and second downs, only to lose the most EPA of any team on third and fourth downs. The opposite has been true for a Denver team that has been around league-average on early downs but third-best in terms of NET EPA+ on those key late downs.
The same can be said for turnovers during this period, as the Broncos have gained the third-most NET EPA off turnovers when accounting for their own giveaways in addition to their opponents. The Lions, on the other hand, have lost the sixth-most EPA from turnovers.
In short, samples, late-down outcomes and turnovers greatly affect a team's overall EPA-per-play numbers and game results. However, they have proven to be unsustainable over longer periods.
Denver is getting a lot of respect in the market for their recent success, which I don’t see them being able to replicate when the rate at which they generate these noisy plays regresses. The market has also come down on Detroit for similarly unsustainable reasons. Once their turnover luck and underperformance on late downs even out, especially on the defensive end, the Lions should be able to perform like the contenders they were believed to be a month ago.
In terms of on-field matchup, the Lions have a key offensive advantage over a Denver defense that has been unable to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks all season. Jared Goff thrives out of clean pockets and should be able to pick apart a Broncos defense that has generated pressure at the sixth-lowest rate.
Best Bet: Lions -4.5 (to -6)
This game provides a perfect opportunity to buy an undervalued Lions squad and fade an overrated Broncos. Back Jared Goff and Co. to get back on track.
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