• WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers — under 39.5 receiving yards: Although Watson is exceptional against man coverage, Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has limited elite threats this season in shadow coverage.
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Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has improved over time and has guided his team to back-to-back wins against good teams in the Los Angeles Chargers and the Detroit Lions. This game against the Kansas City Chiefs is the last real tough game on Green Bay's schedule before playing the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, so a loss as a six-point home underdog here would not be detrimental to their hope of securing a wild-card spot.
The Packers' injuries are piling up this week, with eight players listed as questionable — including Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell, Rudy Ford, Darnell Savage, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. Aaron Jones is once again ruled out, and Eric Stokes is doubtful to return from an injury that has kept him out all season.
Kansas City has been one of the best defenses in the league so far this season, despite an injury to linebacker Nick Bolton, who remains out this week, as does receiving threat running back Jerick McKinnon. But aside from those two players, there are no injury concerns for the Chiefs.
Christian Watson Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-119 Caesars)
Watson had a bit of a breakout game on Thanksgiving against the Lions, notching five catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. Detroit played Cover 1 on 46% of snaps — a coverage that Christian Watson is one of the very best in the league at exploiting.
The Chiefs run Cover 1 at a top-15 rate in the league, but defensive back L’Jarius Sneed has shadowed an opposing receiver most weeks of the season so far in man coverage and is likely to do the same with Christian Watson this week, which creates an interesting dynamic. Although Watson is exceptional against man coverage, Sneed limited Tyreek Hill to just 62 yards and A.J. Brown to just eight yards in recent weeks. He also held Justin Jefferson to three catches for 28 yards in Week 5 and Keenan Allen to four catches for 55 yards in Week 7.
The Chiefs tend to play slow on offense and draw out time-consuming drives with a lot of underneath work, so the opportunities for opposing offenses are somewhat limited.
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