• Bet on Brock Purdy (OVER 11.5 rushing yards) to scramble more than usual: Quarterbacks have scrambled against the Chiefs at the third-highest rate and have generated above-average efficiency on those plays.

• Bet on the Chiefs to attack the perimeter of the field: Take wide receiver Rashee Rice over 68.5 receiving yards.

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Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The wait is over. Super Bowl 58 is upon us, and so are the endless ways to bet on the game.

We’ll construct our angles by breaking down each team’s tendencies on both sides of the ball and analyzing what that means on team and player levels. Let’s get into it.

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2, 47.5)

When the 49ers have the ball

This is the best defense a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team has ever had. Kansas City plays its stifling man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league and has found a ton of success in doing so. Against a 49ers team with elite weapons at every skill position, their secondary will face the ultimate test.

The Chiefs have struggled to generate pressure on quarterbacks this postseason, generating just a 34.5% pass-rush win rate, which would have ranked dead last in the NFL across the whole season. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy should have plenty of time to work through his reads, extend plays and find his weapons as they break free from their defenders.

The combination of good man coverage and a lack of pressure often allows opposing passers to scramble and take advantage of defenders turning their backs to run with their receivers. Because of that, quarterbacks have scrambled against the Chiefs at the third-highest rate and have generated above-average efficiency on those plays.

This specific schematic matchup should cause Purdy to scramble more than normal and allow him to be able to rip off some significant chunks on the ground. During the regular season, Purdy averaged an impressive 8.5 yards per scramble, which was the fourth-best mark among qualified quarterbacks.

Kansas City’s scheme will also significantly affect the San Francisco pass catchers. Against man coverage without pressure, which we should see frequently, Brandon Aiyuk dominated the team target share and was one of the most productive players in the league.

Conversely, Deebo Samuel’s usage plummeted under these conditions. Look for Purdy to tilt the target share toward Aiyuk and away from Samuel because of Aiyuk’s ability to win against man coverage when given the proper time, which he will have in this game.

49ers Offense Best Bets:

• QB Brock Purdy OVER 11.5 rushing yards
• Single-game parlay: WR Brandon Aiyuk OVER 62.5 receiving yards and Deebo Samuel UNDER 58.5 receiving yards (+230 on DK, +200 or better)

When the Chiefs have the ball

The 49ers' defensive unit has been struggling. In the second half of the season, they have performed like a bottom-seven defense.

San Francisco is incredibly vulnerable on the ground and has allowed a significantly positive EPA per rush, ranking in the bottom three over recent weeks. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco should be able to find a ton of success on the ground against a shaky 49ers run defense.

The once-vaunted 49ers pass rush has also fallen off significantly after a great first half of the season. They have ranked around the league average since the midway point of the season and have been even worse recently.

They do take away the middle of the field well, thanks to the dynamic linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. But, unfortunately for San Francisco, the Chiefs' offense targets the middle of the field at the sixth-lowest rate in the league. Kansas City has targeted the outside of the field at a very high rate, which is an area the 49ers have sometimes struggled to defend.

Because Patrick Mahomes isn't expected to work the middle of the field, the target share for these Chiefs pass catchers should shift. Kansas City’s premier weapons, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, tend to work in slightly different areas of the field. A team-high 25% of Kelce’s receptions have come over the middle of the field, while just 16% of Rice’s have been located between the hashes.

While both will certainly be key parts of the Chiefs’ game plan, Rice may garner more usage because of the 49ers' relative weakness on the perimeter, which is where Kansas City will likely attack.

Overall, the Chiefs' offense has a great path to success against an overrated 49ers defense that isn't well-suited to disrupt what Kansas City wants to do.

Chiefs Offense Best Bets:

• Chiefs team total OVER 23.5
• WR Rashee Rice OVER 68.5 receiving yards