• QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — over 33.5 pass attempts: With questions surrounding the health and status of the Dolphins’ backfield, the offense may look to air it out even more than usual, which is already quite a bit.
• WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills — over 50 receiving yards: The last time these two teams matched up — in Miami in Week 18 last season — Shakir exploded for 105 yards on six grabs. Buffalo ran its slot threat in a variety of looks, including several scrapes and rub routes that freed him up for easy yardage.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5) [Total: 48.5]
Game Overview
AFC East action gets started early in Week 2, with the Bills and Dolphins both vying for an early lead in the race for the divisional crown after both coming away with victories to start their 2024 campaigns.
The Bills began the year hot on offense, surprising many who anticipated a drop-off in effectiveness in 2024 due to a shakeup with Josh Allen’s weapons. The departure of wide receiver Stefon Diggs sent ripples throughout the franchise and left this receiving corps a bit shallow. However, those worries were alleviated this past week, after a stellar outing that netted the third-highest EPA per play of the week — albeit against a middling Cardinals defense. While no one in particular erupted for a monster game, the entire unit pulled together and never let up.
Buffalo's defense has some new faces playing key roles, including safety Damar Hamlin, who will face a more difficult test in this matchup as opposed to the Cardinals this past week. Mike McDaniel’s scheme in Miami features a ton of shifts and motion (78.9% motion rate in Week 1), which will undoubtedly cause headaches for the Bills' coverage unit.
Despite the Dolphins having one of the more talented rosters in the league, it hasn’t equated to much success against the Bills. Since taking over as the Dolphins' starting quarterback in 2020-21, Tua Tagovailoa has a 1-6 record against the division rival. While wins aren’t a quarterback stat, and roster turnover varies year to year, the Dolphins' high-priced passer has exceeded a 70.0 PFF passing grade just once against Buffalo over that span.
However, Tagovailoa still knows how to press the ball downfield and put defensive communication to the test on the backend. Against the Jaguars in Week 1, Tua amassed four big-time throws, double that of any other passer on the week, including this strike to Tyreek Hill:
TYREEK HILL JUST WANTS TO GO FAST
pic.twitter.com/GcPudFd4OB— PFF (@PFF) September 8, 2024
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110) — 0.6% PFF Greenline Edge
With questions surrounding the health and status of the Dolphins’ backfield due to injuries to Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, Miami's offense may look to air it out even more than usual, which is already quite a bit.
In Week 1, Tagovailoa saw 44 dropbacks, leading to 37 passing attempts, his fourth instance of eclipsing this mark in his past five games. The Dolphins' high-priced passer averages just a hair over that total dating back to the start of 2023. While Tagovailoa may not have surpassed this line the last time these teams met, he did record 35 attempts in their matchup early in the year, as Miami found itself down multiple scores early.
What makes this line more alluring is that the Bills surprised many in Week 1 with a potent offensive showing, taking a third-place finish in offensive EPA per play on the week. Comparatively, the Jaguars produced the 21st-best mark in the same category, to which Miami needed a last-second field goal to overcome.
If the Dolphins want to buck the trend of playing little brother to the Bills, it will take a great showing from Tua and the passing game.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills: Over 50 Receiving Yards (+150) — Variable PFF Greenline Edge
PFF Greenline and I disagree on this line, but the potential plus-plus matchup that Shakir faces this week is too good to pass up. This 50-yard alternate receiving line is courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the back half of 2023, the Bills' offense started leaning more on Shakir. The last time these two teams matched up — in Miami in Week 18 last season — Shakir exploded for 105 yards on six grabs. Buffalo ran its slot threat in a variety of looks, including several scrapes and rub routes that freed him up for easy yardage.
The big crux of this line is Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou, who struggled in this matchup in 2023 and looks to be a weak link in Miami's secondary after a tough outing in Week 1. The Jaguars picked on Kohou at critical points in the game last week, targeting him six times in coverage for 67 receiving yards on his way to a 33.1 PFF coverage grade, the second-lowest coverage grade from a qualifying cornerback in Week 1.
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