• The usual powerhouses seem destined to make the playoff: Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia are all strong contenders to make the tournament under the new format.
• Texas, Florida State and Oregon are also top contenders: Quarterback star power is the name of the game for those three programs.
• Dominate fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Unlock all of PFF's fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25.
Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
The 12-team College Football era is upon us. The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids, and the seven remaining highest-ranked teams will also earn a spot.
Let's look at the teams with the best shot at making the playoff under the new format this year.
ACC
Clemson Tigers
2023 Record: 9-4
Power Rank: 15th
Projected win total: 7.6
SOS: 37th
Chance of making CFP: 21%
Clemson is still a force to be reckoned with. Head coach Dabo Swinney has refused to utilize the transfer portal, which could ultimately be the team's downfall, but they again brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, as they’ve done for the past decade.
Whether the team makes the College Football Playoff is on quarterback Cade Klubnik‘s shoulders. He underwhelmed in his first season as the starter, finishing with a 63.9 passing grade and 19 turnover-worthy plays. The return of two of his top targets will certainly help, though, with each of Tyler Brown and Jake Briningstool gaining around 500 receiving yards.
Barrett Carter‘s return was massive for this defense, which is perpetually reloading. Carter had a down 2023 season but is looking to get back to the player he was in 2022, when he racked up 27 pressures on his way to an 82.4 pass-rushing grade. Peter Woods, the highest-graded defensive player on the team, will also be back. Woods earned an 87.6 PFF overall grade and is hoping to turn some of his quarterback hurries into sacks this season, which he struggled to do in 2023.
Florida State Seminoles
2023 Record: 13-1
Power Rank: 7th
Projected win total: 8.7
SOS: 33rd
Chance of making CFP: 43%
A 13-1 Florida State team was left out of the College Football Playoff last year, but the new 12-team format is a pathway to redemption.
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was the team's biggest offseason addition. He took massive strides in Corvallis last year, raising his PFF grade in every category, and is returning to a conference he is already familiar with. Could Uiagalelei exact revenge on Clemson? That will be a very anticipated matchup on Oct. 5.
The Seminoles lost even more talent on defense but did bring in Marvin Jones Jr. from Georgia to help along their defensive line. Patrick Payton, who racked the second-most pressures on the team (44) in 2023, is also looking to take another step in his development as a pass-rusher. He and Jones should certainly help fill the void left by Jared Verse on the edge.
Louisville Cardinals
2023 Record: 10-4
Power Rank: 27th
Projected win total: 7.1
SOS: 33rd
Chance of making CFP: 9%
It can’t be understated how impressive head coach Jeff Brohm and Louisville’s turnaround was last season. They put together one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, posting an elite 92.2 team rushing grade. The Cardinals did lose their two top running backs but brought in Miami transfer Donald Chaney Jr. to fill that role. Chaney broke 17 tackles and gained 272 yards after contact in 2023. Quarterback Tyler Shough will also provide more dynamism and athleticism, which Louisville has missed at that position.
The Cardinals fielded one of college football's best defenses in 2023 and could do the same in 2024. Their -0.156 EPA per play against ranked 13th in the FBS. Luckily for Brohm, he gets back his three highest-graded defenders in Quincy Riley, Ashton Gillotte and Mason Reiger — all of whom earned a PFF overall grade above 80.0.
Ashton Gillotte will be a first round pick. Mark it down now‼️@AshtonGillotte pic.twitter.com/RFyONAiuET
— SmittySportsTakes (@SmittySports03) June 1, 2024
Miami Hurricanes
2023 Record: 7-6
Power Rank: 31st
Projected win total: 6.9
SOS: 49th
Chance of making CFP: 11%
Miami is a program under significant pressure to perform this season, given how things have gone for the team over the past few years. Something about the 2024 team feels different, though.
This is the most loaded roster Miami has had in some time. With the addition of star quarterback Cam Ward, the sky might be the limit for this offense, which has arguably the best slot receiver in college football in Xavier Restrepo (89.0 receiving grade). But for every big-time throw Ward makes, you may also get a turnover-worthy play. That's just the Cam Ward effect. If Ward can cut down on the errant passes, he will certainly draw the attention of draft scouts, as he is that gifted of a thrower.
Rueben Bain Jr., one of the most dominant true freshmen defenders in 2023, leads Miami's pass rush off the edge. Bain racked up 45 pressures and nine sacks across 627 snaps. He’s the type of freak athlete who is sure to take a massive step in his development as a pass-rusher. The Hurricanes also brought in impact transfer Tyler Baron (83.3 pass-rushing grade) from Louisville, who will certainly help Bain on the edge.
Big Ten
Michigan Wolverines
2023 Record: 15-0
Power Rank: 3rd
Projected win total: 8.7
SOS: 4th
Chance of making CFP: 48%
Michigan's roster may have undergone the most turnover in the country. But the program is also the reigning national champion, so that was to be expected.
Michigan does have a few stars returning, such as cornerback Will Johnson and interior defender Mason Graham, who may very well be the best overall players at their positions. Both are top-four prospects on PFF's 2025 NFL Draft big board.
On offense, running back Donovan Edwards is the main star returning. After a down year, Edwards is set up nicely to bounce back as the lead running back. He did not quite have the same breakout speed in 2023, so it’ll be crucial for him to find that burst again if Michigan wants to make it back to the playoff.
| Stat | 2022 | 2023 |
| PFF Overall Grade | 86.9 | 71.1 |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 87.3 | 69.8 |
| Yards After Contact | 519 | 318 |
| Yards Per Attempt | 7.1 | 4.2 |
| TDs | 7 | 5 |
| Missed Tackles Forced | 31 | 14 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
2023 Record: 11-2
Power Rank: 4th
Projected win total: 9.7
SOS: 18th
Chance of making CFP: 64%
Ohio State has arguably the best roster in college football entering the season. It is certainly the most talented one in Ryan Day’s tenure. What he brought in via the portal was as impressive as it gets, headlined by Caleb Downs, Quinshon Judkins and Seth McLaughlin.
The Buckeyes in 2023 earned an elite 92.7 overall team grade, and their defense ranked fourth in EPA per play against (-0.228). The one question mark on this team could once again be quarterback play. It appears transfer Will Howard and incoming freshman Julian Sayin will battle it out for the starting spot, and the Buckeyes will need elite-level play out of that position this season in what feels like a championship-or-bust type of year.
Oregon Ducks
2023 Record: 12-2
Power Rank: 6th
Projected win total: 8.7
SOS: 10th
Chance of making CFP: 46%
This could be Dan Lanning’s best team since he arrived in Eugene for the 2022 season, and that’s saying something. Joining the Big Ten will be a challenge, but Oregon’s loaded roster appears ready. The Ducks finished second in 247Sports‘ transfer portal rankings and fourth in their recruiting rankings.
In 2023, Oregon’s offense ranked second in the nation in EPA per play (0.363), and the unit could improve on that this season with Dillon Gabriel now under center. Gabriel is the current betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Over the past two years, he ranks 10th among college football quarterbacks in accuracy-plus percentage and sixth in PFF's wins above average metric.
Running back Jordan James is also destined for a breakout year as the offense's featured back. He already led the nation in PFF rushing grade (94.8) last year, but that was only on 108 carries. He and Tez Johnson, who led the team in receiving grade (89.5), will likely become Oregon’s top two weapons.
Penn State Nittany Lions
2023 Record: 10-3
Power Rank: 8th
Projected win total: 8.1
SOS: 7th
Chance of making CFP: 34%
Penn State seems to always reach double-digit wins yet come up short of making the playoff. That could finally change in what feels like a make-or-break year for James Franklin and the program.
The Nittany Lions will feature an elite defense once again, a unit that ranked first in the FBS in pass-rushing grade (91.5) and second in EPA per play against (-0.256) last year. They bring back stars Abdul Carter and Kevin Winston Jr., who are both ranked in the top 25 on PFF's 2025 NFL Draft big board. Winston’s 92.8 tackling grade in 2023 led all safeties, while his overall defensive grade ranked second (89.2).
Ultimately, quarterback Drew Allar is going to have to improve and have a bounce-back year for this team to hit its ceiling. The rising junior still possesses all the physical tools NFL scouts salivate over, but he tallied only 12 big-time throws in 2023 with an 8.0-yard average depth of target. Allar needs a little more help from his line and receiving corps, along with better play calling, to truly put it all together. Ohio State transfer wide receiver Julian Fleming, who held an 11.5-yard average depth of target in 2023, will hope to alleviate some of that pressure as the new top target.
Drew Allar vs West Virginia (2023)
• 21-29
• 72.4%
• 325 Passing Yards
• 3 Passing TDs
• 86.0 QBR
• 11.2 YPADrew Allar showed out in his first career start 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WVLXFHXNJd
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 3, 2023
Big 12
Arizona Wildcats
2023 Record: 10-3
Power Rank: 24th
Projected win total: 8.9
SOS: 68th
Chance of making CFP: 30%
Arizona ended its 2023 season on a hot streak, and all of that momentum has carried over to this upcoming year. After suffering three early losses, the Wildcats finished on a seven-game win streak once Noah Fifita took over at quarterback. Fifita brought the offense to new heights as the starter, leading the team to the seventh-best positive-EPA percentage (48.9%) in college football.
Fifita developed tremendous chemistry with star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillian, who is already getting a ton of draft hype for next spring. The 6-foot-5 rising junior finished fourth in the FBS in receiving yards (1,396). Fifita will also have New Mexico transfer Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a terrific pass-catching halfback. Croskey-Merritt was the third-highest-graded running back in the country last season (92.7) and drew the attention of pro scouts. But he ultimately chose to play one more season of college football for Arizona in the hopes of winning its first Big 12 title.
Kansas Jayhawks
2023 Record: 9-4
Power Rank: 33rd
Projected win total: 6.7
SOS: 56th
Chance of making CFP: 9%
Kansas’ football program sure has come a long way, from not winning a game in 2020 to reaching a bowl game two years in a row. The team is only projected to get better. Entering last fall, Kansas was a dark horse playoff team. Well, they are not a dark horse anymore. They are a legitimate threat, not only to the Big 12 but to all conferences.
Jalon Daniels is one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the country. He was off to a tremendous start in 2023 (84.3 passing grade on 87 dropbacks) before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 4 against BYU. His return, along with the return of his top three receivers — Lawrence Arnold, Quentin Skinner and Luke Grimm — will be crucial to the success of this program. All three players posted a 77.0 PFF overall grade with more than 500 receiving yards.
While the Jayhawks' defense improved slightly from 2022 to 2023 (127th in EPA per play against up to 88th), there is still a long way to go on that side of the ball. North Dakota State transfer Javier Derritt, who has racked up nearly 50 pressures and tackles in his career, could be the veteran presence the defensive line needs. His experience, with 1,341 career snaps, will be vital for the development of Kansas’ young linemen.
“Why do KU fans hype Jalon Daniels up so much?”
This is why. His ability to throw on the run and extend the play is what makes him special. pic.twitter.com/b94YfzXDDO
— Austin Eckert (@AustinCEckert) June 19, 2024
Kansas State Wildcats
2023 Record: 9-4
Power Rank: 22nd
Projected win total: 6.7
SOS: 59th
Chance of making CFP: 11%
Head coach Chris Klieman has quietly formed a very solid program in Manhattan built on defense and toughness. The Wildcats led the conference with the lowest percentage of successful plays allowed last season (31.7%). Slot cornerback Marques Sigle, who led the team with seven pass breakups, is a big reason for that.
Kansas State should have one of the best rushing offenses in college football this season. They return star running back DJ Giddens, who ran for 1,226 yards on 223 carries and did not fumble once. Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, who forced 20 missed tackles last year, will share the load of carries. This is on top of the declaration of Avery Johnson, a known runner, as the Wildcats' starting quarterback. On limited snaps, Johnson ran for 311 yards on 55 attempts to earn a 76.7 PFF rushing grade. Kansas State as a team posted an elite 92.0 rushing grade in 2023, which should only go up this fall if everything goes accordingly for the offense.
Utah Utes
2023 Record: 8-5
Power Rank: 41st
Projected win total: 6.6
SOS: 64th
Chance of making CFP: 8%
It’s rather surprising to see the Utes coming in at only 41st in our power rankings, as they return their two best linebackers, Levani Damuni and Karene Reid. They are both exceptional tacklers, missing less than 9% of their tackles throughout last year.
Utah has come so close to making the College Football Playoff in each of the past few years but has yet to break through. This feels like now or never for the program with the transition to the Big 12 along with the new playoff format.
Quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe are two of the oldest players in the NCAA but bring a ton of experience in big-game moments. Kuithe is hoping to get back to the player he was back in 2021, when he racked up 611 receiving yards and six touchdowns to earn an 80.5 PFF receiving grade. Rising had similar success that year, recording 20 big-time throws and earning an 84.7 PFF overall grade.
SEC
Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 Record: 12-2
Power Rank: 5th
Projected win total: 8.4
SOS: 23rd
Chance of making CFP: 41%
This is the most uncertainty the Alabama program has faced in quite some time. Nick Saban’s aura alone is a huge loss for the program, but they are certainly in good hands with Kalen DeBoer, an offensive mastermind. Don’t expect this program to skip much of a beat, given their second-ranked recruiting class. This is still Alabama.
It’ll be exciting to see what DeBoer can do for quarterback Jalen Milroe’s quarterback. We all know what Milroe can do as a runner, as he earned an 85.3 rushing grade with 499 yards after contact last season, two marks that ranked in the top 10 among quarterbacks. But if he can develop his throwing accuracy from the pocket, then he might be unstoppable.
To help Milroe, DeBoer brought receiver Germie Bernard and center Parker Brailsford with him from Washington. Brailsford allowed only one sack in 2023 with an 80.7 run-blocking grade, while Bernard recorded a 122.5 passer rating when targeted.
Throw of the year, the situation, the moment. My goodness Jalen Milroe. pic.twitter.com/LvzvLG5iHr
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) November 26, 2023
Georgia Bulldogs
2023 Record: 13-1
Power Rank: 1st
Projected win total: 9.9
SOS: 15th
Chance of making CFP: 73%
Most college football team rankings will have Georgia at the top of the list — and rightfully so, given the talent they’re bringing back in addition to another top-ranked recruiting class. Kirby Smart has built a dynasty in Athens that will be going for its third national championship in four years. The Bulldogs finished third as a team last year in both PFF overall grade (94.0) and EPA per play (0.286).
It’s always a good start when you bring back your star quarterback who is already being touted as QB1 for the 2025 NFL Draft. Beck is also a popular pick to win the Heisman Trophy. The Georgia signal-caller was the fourth-most valuable quarterback last year — behind 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (1.44), Michael Penix Jr. (1.35) and Jayden Daniels (1.28). His 3,949 passing yards and 80.1% adjusted completion percentage both ranked third among quarterbacks in 2023, while his 91.5 PFF overall grade ranked fifth.
Georgia’s secondary lost playmakers to the 2024 NFL Draft, but they still bring back safety Malaki Starks (89.8 tackling grade), who is projected to be an All-American in 2024. Defensive end Mykel Williams, who came on strong at the end of last year, is also poised for a big season. Williams recorded six pressures alone in the Bulldogs bowl game against Florida State to earn a 93.5 overall PFF grade. Williams comes in as the 65th-ranked player overall on PFF's 2025 NFL Draft big board.
Ole Miss
2023 Record: 11-2
Power Rank: 14th
Projected win total: 8.3
SOS: 35th
Chance at making CFP: 31%
Ole Miss can never seem to get over the hump to make the College Football Playoff, which puts Lane Kiffin and his squad under some pressure this year. The expanded playoff is terrific news for Kiffin, as this is his best team yet on paper. There are no excuses for not making the playoff this time around.
According to 247Sports, the Rebels finished first in the transfer portal rankings. Defensive linemen Walter Nolan and Princely Umanmielen, who each had seven sacks in 2023, are transferring in.
Kiffin also kept some top-tier talent in-house, with both Jaxson Dart (91.2) and Tre Harris (88.5) returning, the team’s two highest-graded offensive players from 2023. They have proven to be one of the best QB-WR duos in college football. When targeting Harris last year, Dart posted an incredible 131.7 passer rating with eight touchdowns.
Texas Longhorns
2023 Record: 12-2
Power Rank: 2nd
Projected win total: 9.1
SOS: 5th
Chance of making CFP: 56%
We no longer have to ask whether Texas is back. They’re here.
Steve Sarkisian now has loftier goals than just making the playoff. The Longhorns are looking for their first national title since 2005, and Quinn Ewers, who finished 10th among quarterbacks in PFF's wins above average metric, opted to return in the hopes of achieving just that.
After a rough 2022 campaign, Ewers vastly improved in 2023 and reminded everyone why he was the nation’s top recruit back in 2021. His 86.8 PFF overall grade has him in the top tier of Heisman Trophy candidates entering the fall. He will have to get used to a new receiving corps, though, as he lost his top five targets. Alabama transfers Isaiah Bond and Amari Niblack are sure to help, as each went for more than 300 receiving yards last season.
Texas' biggest deficiency is the interior defensive line. It’s certainly going to be hard to replace the two best defensive tackles in college football, but Alfred Collins will do his best. He recorded the third-highest pass-rushing grade on the team (80.6), behind only T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. Overall, Collins racked up 23 pressures, 13 tackles and nine run stops on the year.
Quinn Ewers' third touchdown pass of the night gives No. 11 Texas a 10-point lead over No. 3 Alabama.
Ewers has thrown for 349 yards with eight minutes left to play.
🎥 @TFB_Texaspic.twitter.com/JqRYRhFHMp
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 10, 2023
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