College Football Preview 2024: Baylor Bears win projections, strengths and weaknesses, quarterback spotlight and more

Head coach: Dave Aranda (fifth season)
2023 record: 3-9
PFF power ranking: 86th
Chance to win the Big 12: 4%
Strength of schedule: 53rd
Projected win total: 6.1
FanDuel win total: 5.5
2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 59 nationally, No. 14 in the Big 12

Baylor has endured back-to-back losing seasons after its magical 2021 when the team finished as the No. 5 team in the country with a 12-2 record and a Big 12 championship.

Head coach Dave Aranda enters his fifth year with the Bears on the hot seat, needing his program to bounce back quickly. The offense features a new quarterback, Toledo transfer Dequan Finn, supported by a strong offensive line. While the defense has serious questions at the first and second levels, the secondary looks promising, thanks to an emerging group of cornerbacks.

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Biggest Strength: Pass protection

Baylor finished 12th in the FBS in team pass-blocking grade last year and brought back five of the six offensive linemen who played at least 400 snaps.

Biggest Weakness: Front seven

Baylor’s front seven was the third-lowest-graded group in the Power Five last year, posting just a 62.8 grade as a unit. The Bears especially struggled to stop the run, giving up 5.6 yards per attempt. That’s a major issue in the Big 12, where many schools have dominant running backs. Baylor didn’t add much to fix that issue in the transfer portal, so it’ll need dramatic improvement from its defenders up front.

2023 Team Overview

Offense
EPA per play	Yards per play	Successful play rate	Explosive run play rate	Explosive pass play rate
-0.077	5.3	32.8%	13.3%	14.1%
100th	98th	T-96th	99th	69th
Defense
EPA allowed per play	Yards allowed per play	Successful play rate allowed	Explosive run rate allowed	Explosive pass rate allowed
0.129	6.4	37.3%	15.7%	19.6%
127th	T-123rd	108th	T-71st	133rd

Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions

QB Dequan Finn (Toledo): 79.3 PFF Grade
OG Kurt Danneker (Ohio): 77.2 PFF Grade
CB Lorando Johnson (Arkansas): 59.6 PFF Grade

Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses

QB Blake Shapen (Mississippi State): 71.7 PFF Grade
TE Jake Roberts (Oklahoma): 70.6 PFF Grade
TE Drake Dabney (TCU): 63.4 PFF Grade

Quarterback Spotlight: Dequan Finn

2023 Grade: 79.3
Key Stat: One of six QBs with a 90.0-plus passing grade in three separate games (Carson Beck, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., Preston Stone)

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