- Head coach: Manny Diaz (First season)
- 2023 record: 8-5 (won Birmingham Bowl)
- PFF power ranking: 53rd
- Chance to win the ACC: 2%
- Strength of schedule: 48th
- Projected win total: 6.2
- FanDuel win total: 5.5
- 2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 59 nationally, No. 14 in the ACC
Mike Elko did a terrific job of turning around Duke during his two years as head coach. The Blue Devils went 17-9 across the past two seasons after a 5-18 record in the previous two. With Texas A&M poaching Elko this offseason, Duke turned to Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz as its next head coach. He brings with him an aggressive defensive philosophy, as the Nittany Lions blitzed at the third-highest rate in the country last season (57.9%).
Luckily for Diaz, he has a capable secondary while more players rush the passer. The offense will likely rely on a dynamic duo at running back between Jaquez Moore and New Mexico State transfer Star Thomas. The biggest issue for the Blue Devils is the significant losses they sustained through the transfer portal and whether Texas transfer Maalik Murphy is a viable passer.
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Biggest Strength: Secondary
Duke was among the top 25 teams in college football in coverage grade (88.2) last season. While the Blue Devils lost three starters from their defensive backfield, it still projects to be a strong unit in 2024. Chandler Rivers is a rising star at outside cornerback, and Rice transfer Tre’shon Devones earned an 80.2 PFF coverage grade last year.
Biggest Weakness: Brand new roster
Duke has many new faces in 2024. Not only do the Blue Devils have a new coach roaming the sidelines, but only 14 of the 31 players who played 300 snaps last season are still with the program.
2023 Team Overview
Offense |
||||
| EPA per play | Yards per play | Successful play rate | Explosive run play rate | Explosive pass play rate |
| -0.006 | 5.7 | 34.6% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| 64th | T-71st | T-77th | 66th | 98th |
Defense |
||||
| EPA allowed per play | Yards allowed per play | Successful play rate allowed | Explosive run rate allowed | Explosive pass rate allowed |
| -0.072 | 5.2 | 35.9% | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| 38th | T-32nd | 88th | 60th | 35th |
Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions
- QB Maalik Murphy (Texas): 52.1 PFF grade
- RB Star Thomas (New Mexico State): 78.6 PFF grade
- CB Tre’shon Devones (Rice): 76.7 PFF grade
Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses
- QB Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): 77.5 PFF grade
- DI Aeneas Peebles (Virginia Tech): 86.1 PFF grade
- RB Jordan Waters (NC State): 77.5 PFF grade
Quarterback Spotlight: Maalik Murphy
2023 Grade: 52.1
Key Stat: 42.6 PFF overall grade against the blitz
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