- Head coach: Jeff Lebby (1st season)
- 2023 record: 5-7
- PFF power ranking: 59th
- Chance to win SEC: 1%
- Strength of schedule: 12th
- Projected win total: 6.1
- FanDuel win total: 4.5
- 2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 26 nationally, No. 14 in the SEC
Then-defensive coordinator Zach Arnett took over the Mississippi State program after head coach Mike Leach’s tragic death in December 2022, and he moved away from Leach’s patented Air-Raid offense to poor results the following season.
The Bulldogs missed a bowl game for the first time since 2009, mainly due to the offense’s inability to get anything going. Arnett was fired after just one season, and Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby was hired to revitalize the program. With him at the helm and many new starters from the transfer portal in tow, Mississippi State’s offense could be a lot better in 2024. The defense could ultimately cause the Bulldogs to miss their second straight bowl game, however.
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Biggest Strength: A new-look offense under Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State’s offense won’t look anything like it did last year, which should be a good thing, considering the Bulldogs finished as the ninth-worst Power Five team in expected points added per play. Mississippi State is expected to start eight transfers on offense and hired an innovative offensive head coach in Jeff Lebby.
Biggest Weakness: Questions everywhere on defense
Mississippi State lost eight starters from a defense that was around average last year. The Bulldogs need to be better at getting after the quarterback in 2024, as their 63.3 team pass-rushing grade in 2023 ranked 10th worst in college football.
2023 Team Overview
Offense |
||||
| EPA per play | Yards per play | Successful play rate | Explosive run play rate | Explosive pass play rate |
| -0.123 | 5.1 | 29.8% | 15,6% | 12.9% |
| 114th | T-109th | 126th | 64th | T-89th |
Defense |
||||
| EPA allowed per play | Yards allowed per play | Successful play rate allowed | Explosive run rate allowed | Explosive pass rate allowed |
| -0.019 | 5.3 | 33.5% | 14.4% | 12.3% |
| 63rd | T-47th | 47th | 53rd | T-24th |
Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions
- QB Blake Shapen (Baylor): 71.7 PFF grade
- WR Kelly Akharaiyi (UTEP): 76.6 PFF grade
- C Ethan Miner (North Texas): 82.5 PFF grade
Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses
- QB Will Rogers (Washington): 77.3 PFF grade
- RB Woody Marks (USC): 82.0 PFF grade
- CB DeCarlos Nicholson (USC): 71.3 PFF grade
Quarterback Spotlight: Blake Shapen
2023 Grade: 71.7
Key Stat: 60.9 non-play action passing grade (79th out of 95 quarterbacks with 300-plus dropbacks)
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