College Football Week 3 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the five biggest games

• Boston College-Missouri: Sixth-ranked Missouri has its first true test of the season against No. 24 Boston College.

• Arizona-Kansas State: Two of the Big 12’s best teams face off in what’s technically a non-conference game. 

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Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes

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Week 2 of college football was all about chaos. Six ranked teams suffered their first losses of the season, and two were schools in the top 10. The Week 3 slate has two games between ranked squads and plenty of other enticing matchups. 

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for six of the biggest games this weekend.

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No. 20 Arizona Wildcats at No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats (Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX)

Storyline to know: A massive Big 12 game that technically isn’t even a Big 12 game

Friday night’s showdown between Arizona and Kansas State is a matchup between two of the four Big 12 teams that are currently ranked in the top-20, making it a good indicator of who the top contenders are for the wide-open conference. 

As big as this game is for determining the Big 12’s pecking order, it ironically won’t even affect the conference’s standings. Back in 2016, these two schools agreed to play a home-and-home series in 2024 and 2025 as a part of their respective non-conference schedules since Arizona was a member of the Pac-12 at the time. With the Wildcats debuting in the Big 12 this year, the two agreed to keep these games as a part of their non-conference schedule. That means Arizona and Kansas State will play 10 games against Big 12 opponents this season while the rest of the conference plays nine. 

Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton): Kansas State’s run game vs. Arizona linebackers Jacob Manu and Taye Brown

The foundation of Kansas State’s offense is its dynamic rushing attack, headlined by quarterback Avery Johnson in addition to running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. What makes their running game so unique is the variety of gap schemes that they deploy to both confuse and manhandle defenses.

Since the start of last year, Kansas State has run the most gap scheme plays in the nation. That’s a serious threat to an Arizona defense that hasn’t particularly excelled against that style of play. 

Arizona vs. Gap runs since the start of 2023

Along with utilizing their dynamic talent, Kansas State’s offense is heavily reliant on controlling linebackers. The amount of pullers the Wildcats deploy up front combined with Avery Johnson’s ability as a dynamic option threat forces linebackers to read their offense on multiple levels. 

It will be incumbent upon linebackers Jacob Manu and Taye Brown to be difference-makers for Arizona in this game. Those two currently own 77.1 and 70.6 run defense grades respectively, albeit against subpar competition in New Mexico and Northern Arizona.

Through two weeks, though, Arizona has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to running backs. The primary issue has been defending the quarterback, whom they’ve so far allowed 6.8 yards per carry.

There aren’t many teams that pose bigger problems to linebackers than Kansas State. Last season, all opposing linebackers combined to earn a 42.0 run defense grade against them. If Arizona is to leave Manhattan victorious, they will need Manu and Brown to have standout performances. 

Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Max): Can Arizona find someone in the receiving corps outside of Tetairoa McMillan to rely on?

Tetairoa McMillan is currently a top-five prospect on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board and has a strong argument to be college football's best wide receiver. That especially looked true in Arizona’s 61-39 victory over New Mexico in Week 1. In that win, the junior tallied a school-record 304 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 10 catches, looking completely unguardable one-on-one. 

So instead of trying to slow him down with single-coverage, Northern Arizona often bracketed him with a corner and safety this past weekend. The Lumberjacks found great success doing so, holding McMillan to just two catches for 11 yards. With their top weapon essentially neutralized, the Wildcats only scored 22 points despite facing an FCS opponent. If Kansas State follows a similar strategy, Arizona will need other pass-catchers like tight end Keyan Burnett and wide receiver Jeremiah Patterson to step up. The issue for K-State is that it’s currently 79th among FBS teams in coverage grade (69.7).

Predictions

Max: Arizona 30, Kansas State 27

Arizona squeaks out a close win with Fifita taking advantage of a vulnerable Kansas State secondary. 

Dalton: Kansas State 34, Arizona 30

Neither team has played their best football yet, but Kansas State’s running game makes the difference in a close, high-scoring game.

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No. 16 LSU Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (12 PM EST on ABC)

Storyline to know: Can LSU get back on track?

To put it simply, the Tigers haven’t had the best start to its 2024 season. LSU began the year with a 27-20 loss to No. 23 USC, a game in which it held the lead with six minutes left. It then struggled to put away Nicholls in Week 2 despite being 46.5-point favorites. The Tigers only led their FCS foe by two points in the third quarter before scoring three unanswered touchdowns to escape with a 44-21 victory. 

LSU is now traveling to South Carolina, who’s hosting ESPN’s College Gameday for the first time in a decade. The Gamecocks are currently 2-0 and are coming off a dominant 31-6 victory on the road over Kentucky despite entering the game as 9.5-point underdogs.  

Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Dalton): LaNorris Sellers’ big arm vs. LSU’s secondary

South Carolina’s offense is a run-heavy approach, but the Gamecocks' best plays of the season have come from the explosive right arm of LaNorris Sellers. Whether or not Sellers can hit a handful of explosive passes could be the difference in this game.

On the surface, Sellers hasn’t gotten off to an impressive start as he’s earned just a 60.2 passing grade through two games. The caveat is that his grade is heavily skewed by three fumbles that he had in the pocket last week against Kentucky. If we remove those fumbles, Sellers’ passing grade is a much more respectable 77.4. 

Sellers’ talents are similar to those of Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. He’s an excellent athlete, especially for his size. Like Milroe, he appears to be a high variance passer who is a threat on every play to throw the ball over the top. So far in his career, he owns a 92.8 passing grade on 10-plus yard throws. He is still working on consistently taking what the defense gives him, but his home run ability in the passing game should be LSU’s greatest concern.

Since the start of last season, The Tigers are tied for 54th among the 70 Power Five teams in coverage grade. They’ve also given up 88 receptions of 15 or more yards in that same span, tied for 6th-most in the Power Five. They are also struggling to rush the passer after losing three defensive tackles to the NFL Draft, continuing their decreasing usage of Harold Perkins Jr. as a pass-rusher. 

The Gamecocks’ offense isn’t the most consistent unit yet, but Sellers’ ability to hit home runs is a serious threat to the Tigers’ defense. 

Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): Dylan Stewart against the best tackle duo in the country

South Carolina true freshman Dylan Stewart has been nothing short of spectacular through his first two collegiate games. The former five-star recruit is third among FBS edge defenders in overall grade (90.5) while leading them in pass-rushing grade (94.0). He's also tied for first among all defensive players with two forced fumbles. He has ridiculous bend at 6-foot-6, 248 pounds which allows him to deploy a ghost move that has been nearly unblockable through two weeks. 

He’ll face his toughest test yet this week against LSU, who has arguably the best offensive tackle duo in college football. Will Campbell mans the left side and was my top-ranked tackle entering the season while also being a top-10 prospect on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board. The Tigers’ right tackle, Emery Jones Jr., started 2024 as my No. 9 offensive tackle in the nation and is currently a first-round prospect on our big board.  

Predictions

Max: LSU 31, South Carolina 21

After two disappointing performances to start the season, LSU regains its footing with an impressive road win in its first SEC game.  

Dalton: South Carolina 20, LSU 17

LSU needs to run the ball and prevent explosive plays in order to win. Neither of those things are a strength for them. The Gamecocks’ defense carries them to an upset.

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No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide at Wisconsin Badgers (12 PM EST on FOX)

Storyline to know: Was that game against USF a fluke for Alabama like last year?

For the second year in a row, Alabama’s game against USF came down to the wire. The Crimson Tide clung to a five-point lead over the Bulls with under six minutes to go before scoring three-straight touchdowns to get out with a 42-16 win. Alabama entered that game as 33.5-point favorites.

Last year, the Crimson Tide beat South Florida 17-3 in what was a one-score game before Alabama scored a touchdown with under a minute left. Many were hitting the panic button on the Crimson Tide’s offense since they looked sluggish in a loss to Texas the week before. Nick Saban and quarterback Jalen Milroe responded by rattling off 10-straight victories, including an SEC Championship over Georgia to secure a College Football Playoff berth. Kalen DeBoer will attempt to right the ship the same way with Milroe as they head into a hostile environment in Madison, Wisconsin.

Matchup to watch when Wisconsin has the ball (Dalton): Is Wisconsin able to take vertical shots against better competition?

Through two games, Wisconsin has completed just two passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air. Both of those plays came about due to major mistakes in coverage by FCS opponent South Dakota.

Generating explosive plays is perennially difficult for the Badgers, but they should be able to do so this year with their strong-armed quarterback Tyler Van Dyke at the helm. Van Dyke isn’t perfect, but the Badgers have had greater difficulties in finding weapons who can produce for them downfield.

Wisconsin 15-plus-yard receiving stats since start of 2023

Wisconsin ranked 113th in receiving grade last season in large part due to their inability to separate downfield. The trend has continued this year, even as the Badgers have played lesser opponents in their first two games. Even though Van Dyke has a strong enough arm to make any throw on the field, he is carrying what would be career-lows in average depth of target and yards per attempt.

Now, they face a Crimson Tide squad that ranked second in the nation in coverage grade in 2023 and is currently tied for sixth through two games this season. Few teams prevent explosive plays as well as Alabama. Wisconsin is going to have a hard time scoring if they can’t find ways to threaten the Crimson Tide’s secondary. 

Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Jalen Milroe and Alabama’s receivers against Wisconsin’s secondary

Milroe struggled to get anything going against South Florida this past week. His 50.7 overall grade and 49.5 passing grade are lower than anything he posted last season. Milroe consistently missed deep receivers and was once again rough against the blitz. He posted a 44.7 passing grade on such plays after placing 85th among FBS quarterbacks against the blitz the year before (62.5 passing grade). It also doesn’t help that Alabama is currently 105th in team pass-blocking grade, though the potential return of left tackle Kadyn Proctor from injury should go a long way in fixing that. The receiving corps is a bit more worrisome as 17-year-old freshman Ryan Williams is the only pass catcher with even 80 receiving yards for the Crimson Tide this year. 

Wisconsin blitzes at about an average rate, its 37.5% blitz rate is tied for 57th in the country this season. However, it does have the secondary that can hold up if Luke Fickell decides to send the house more against Milroe. The Badgers entered the year with one of my 10 best secondaries in the country thanks to stars like safety Hunter Wohler and cornerback Ricardo Hallman.  

Predictions

Max: Alabama 27, Wisconsin 13

Wisconsin’s defense forces Milroe into a few mistakes early but he and the Crimson Tide are able to pull away in the second half.

Dalton: Alabama 35, Wisconsin 10

Similar to last year, the Crimson Tide bounce back after a strange game against USF to dominate a formidable opponent.

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No. 24 Boston College Eagles at No. 6 Missouri Tigers (12:45 PM EST on SEC Network)

Storyline to know: First real test for Missouri

The Tigers have looked stellar in its first two games. Missouri became the first FBS team since 2019 to pitch two shutouts to start the season, outsourcing its opponents 89-0 in the process. Because of that start, the Tigers moved up five spots to No. 6 in the AP poll after starting the year No. 11. 

As impressive as Missouri has looked, it’s important to remember that it faced Murray State (an FCS school) and Buffalo (3-9 last season). Boston College should present the first real challenge for the Tigers as it’s currently No. 24 with a 2-0 record.

Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): How much pressure does Tim Lewis apply on Brady Cook?

Missouri has a plethora of weapons at its disposal, so there is a delicate balance between leaving enough defenders in coverage and applying enough pressure to Brady Cook when facing them.

Cook has been a less effective passer against the blitz in his career, so that could be a point of emphasis for Boston College defensive coordinator this week.

Brady Cook vs. blitzes since the start of 2023

Cook’s passing numbers against the blitz are a bit underwhelming compared to his work against standard pressure. His passing grade is nearly 14 points lower against blitzes since the start of last season. His ratio of big time throws to turnover-worthy plays is much better against a standard rush. When blitzed he often prefers to use his legs to make plays, which may be preferable to the alternative of players like Luther Burden III or Marquis Johnson winning downfield.

Boston College has blitzed quarterbacks on roughly 40% of its pass rush snaps so far this season, an above average rate and a slight uptick from last season. That approach may be necessary, given that they rank 48th in pass rush grade despite playing two subpar offenses in Florida State and Duquesne. Missouri’s offensive line also currently ranks sixth in the nation in pass blocking grade. 

It’s unlikely that many teams will be able to line up conventionally and effectively cover all of Missouri’s weapons. The answer may be to gamble in an attempt to rattle their quarterback so the ball can’t get to those weapons.

Matchup to watch when Boston College has the ball (Max): Can Missouri contain Boston College’s run game?

Boston College has run the ball on 66.9% of its plays this season, the highest rate among Power Four schools. The Eagles have a four-headed backfield the Tigers must account for. Treshaun Ward, Kye Robichaux and Turbo Richard each have over 100 rushing yards through two games this season. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is right behind them with 71 yards and was second among FBS signal-callers last year with 1,222 yards on the ground, trailing only the Heisman Trophy winner in Jayden Daniels. 

If Missouri stacks the box to stop the run, Castellanos also has the capability to win with his arm thanks to his improvement under new head coach Bill O’Brien. His 94.4 passing grade this season leads all FBS quarterbacks after placing just 128th last year with a 57.7 passing grade. 

The Tigers have been stout against the run so far, allowing just 3.2 yards per attempt (20th in the nation). However, this Eagle backfield will test them far more than Murray State and Buffalo have.

Predictions

Max: Missouri 34, Boston College 21

Missouri’s offensive firepower proves to be too much for Boston College to handle and the Tigers claim their first signature win of the season.  

Dalton: Missouri 35, Boston College 24

Missouri is balanced on offense and has looked better on defense than we expected early in the season. The Eagles put up a fight, but Missouri comes out on top.

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Tulane Green Wave at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (3:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: How does Oklahoma respond after a scare against Houston?

Despite entering the game as 27.5-point favorites, Oklahoma only beat Houston by four this past Saturday. It was a game where the Sooners were on defense with just a two-point lead and under two minutes left before scoring a safety to seal the victory. The week before, UNLV dominated Houston by a final score of 27-7. 

Oklahoma can’t afford to look as sloppy against Tulane, who just lost to Kansas State by a touchdown. In that defeat, the Green Wave held the ball on the 16-yard line with just 12 seconds left before throwing an interception in the end zone. The Wildcats are now ranked one spot higher than the Sooners in the AP poll, making it feasible that they can hang with Oklahoma as well. 

Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Dalton): Tulane’s play action game vs. Oklahoma’s coverage unit

Tulane made one of the more shocking quarterback decisions in the country it selected redshirt freshman Darian Mensah as its starter over Oregon transfer Ty Thompson. So far, Mensah has played well as he shredded Southeast Louisiana in his first start before coming up just short of a win against Kansas State last week.

One aspect where Mensah has excelled is in the play action passing game, which makes sense given that standout running back Makhi Hughes is the foundation of the offense.

Darian Mensah's play-action metrics with FBS ranks 

Mensah is willing and able to take play action shots as defenses bite on fakes. He’s particularly excelled at throwing down the middle of the field. His ability to throw with touch and layer balls into the second level may be the biggest reason he won the starting job. 

Oklahoma, meanwhile, hasn’t always excelled when defending play action. Last season, the Sooners ranked 31st out of 70 Power Four teams in coverage grade against play action. So far this season, they rank 59th. Houston’s play-action attack last week against Oklahoma was the most successful part of their game plan. 

The Green Wave can compete, just as they did last week, if they continue to find balance between Hughes in the run game and Mensah’s play action prowess. 

Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Max): Will Jackson Arnold’s supporting cast improve?

While some have been disappointed by Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold through two weeks, it’s his supporting cast that’s actually been far more concerning. The Sooners currently have a 57.5 team receiving grade, the second-worst mark among Power Four schools. A big reason for that is the myriad of injuries Oklahoma’s suffered there with guys like Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq and Jayden Gibson all banged up. The Sooners’ new-look offensive line has also struggled, placing just 91st in the country in pressure rate allowed (30.6%). That’s an issue as Arnold is just 100th among FBS quarterbacks in PFF grade under pressure (45.6) compared to 36th when kept clean (84.8). =

Luckily for Oklahoma, Tulane has been vulnerable against passing games so far this season. The Green Wave’s 64.3 coverage grade is 102nd in the country while their 26% pressure rate is just 103rd. If the Sooners struggle once again with their passing attack, it might be time to start worrying about their offense as they enter SEC play. 

Predictions

Max: Oklahoma 27, Tulane 17

Oklahoma’s offense enjoys a bounceback game while the defense continues to show why it’s one of the better units in college football. 

Dalton: Oklahoma 27, Tulane 23

Tulane narrowly lost to Kansas State last week. Darian Mensah is a real threat, but the Sooners defense does just enough to avoid their first loss.

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Texas A&M Aggies at Florida Gators (3:30 PM EST on ABC)

Storyline to know: Two programs with fascinating quarterback situations

Quarterbacks are naturally always the players that people pay the most attention to as they play the most important position on the field. However, the quarterbacks in this game deserve even more scrutiny.  

Florida is currently embroiled in a quarterback battle between redshirt senior Graham Mertz and true freshman DJ Lagway. Mertz has infinitely more experience than Lagway but was rough against Miami (FL) in the season opener, committing three turnover-worthy plays after having just six all of last season. He was concussed in the loss which led to Lagway getting the start against Samford this past weekend. The top-ranked quarterback recruit in the 2024 cycle showed why he was a five star in his first career start, tossing five big-time throws in the victory. Head coach Billy Napier confirmed this week that the Gators intend to use both of them moving forward. 

While Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman is undoubtedly the Aggies’ starter, he does need to bounce back. The redshirt sophomore entered the season as PFF’s top quarterback prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft but had a rough showing against Notre Dame in the season opener, posting just a 37.1 passing grade in the loss. He’ll attempt to bounce back against a Florida defense that earned only a 51.2 coverage grade in the loss to Miami (FL) a couple weeks ago. 

Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Can Conner Weigman excel against equivalent competition?

Conner Weigman is a very talented quarterback with a strong arm and above average athleticism. His tools are the reason he is one of the top quarterbacks on PFF’s Big Board. However, he has yet to show he can consistently produce against Power Five competition.

Conner Weigman's career stats 

It’s clear that Weigman can shred lower competition with ease, but he has to show that he can do that against better teams, starting with this week’s game.

Florida’s secondary has struggled over the last couple of seasons. Only Vanderbilt posted a worse coverage grade among SEC teams last season. Cam Ward and Miami also performed very well when they played a couple of weeks ago. 

Weigman is also at his best when he can throw down the middle of the field. However, against better competition, the difference in his performance is whether or not he can make throws to the perimeter. Two weeks ago against Notre Dame, he posted a 29.7 passing grade when he did not throw to the middle third of the field. The Gators, meanwhile, rank among the 20 worst teams in the Power Five in coverage grade on such passes. 

Weigman has a chance against a vulnerable opponent to rewrite his current narrative.

Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): How does Billy Napier handle this quarterback controversy?

As mentioned earlier, Florida currently has a quarterback dilemma on its hands. The Gators’ offense will look vastly different depending on who’s in the game. Graham Mertz is the veteran of the group who will take care of the football but won’t push the ball downfield. His 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate was third among FBS signal-callers last season while his 6.7-yard average depth of target was the third-lowest in America.  

Lagway certainly has more potential of the two with his physical tools but lacks the experience Mertz has as he’s just a true freshman. He was eager to show off the rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder against Samford, which led to great success for Florida. The former five-star recruit currently leads the country with a 15.2% big-time throw rate and 15.2-yard average depth of target.  

Predictions

Max: Texas A&M 31, Florida 17

Conner Weigman is able to take advantage of Florida‘s secondary while the uncertainty under center for the Gators leads to the offense being static against a good Aggie defense.  

Dalton: Texas A&M 26, Florida 23

Both of these teams desperately need a win, but Florida’s quarterback situation combined with Texas A&M’s pass rush are a bad matchup for the Gators.