• Georgia–Alabama: The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide meet in the first matchup between top-five teams this season.
• Illinois–Penn State: Two Big Ten squads in the top-20 put their undefeated seasons on the line.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 30 minutes
Week 4 of college football was absolute madness. Six ranked teams lost this past weekend with four matchups between top-25 schools.
Week 5 promises to have more of the same chaos. We have another four games between top-25 squads this weekend, including our first top-five showdown of the season in No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for six of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats (12 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Two teams desperate to get back on track in a wide-open Big 12
Both the Cowboys and the Wildcats suffered their first losses of the season this past weekend. Oklahoma State was defeated at home by then-No. 12 Utah by a final score of 22-19. Kansas State’s loss was far more embarrassing as it was demolished by then-unranked BYU by a 38-9 final score.
The winner of this game is back in the thick of a wide-open Big 12 race. Meanwhile, the loser pretty much can’t lose another conference game if it wants to continue fighting for a Big 12 title and a playoff berth.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton): Kansas State’s run game vs. Oklahoma State’s run defense
To be clear, the first thing Kansas State needs to do to win this week is avoid turnovers. The Wildcats turned the ball over three times last week. The last time they had three turnovers in a game was last season’s loss to Oklahoma State. They are not built in any way to play from behind. Avoiding obvious passing situations is a necessity.
Luckily, they still have their elite running game spearheaded by Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. Despite their other struggles last week, the Wildcats still ran for 233 yards and created eight explosive plays on the ground. As long as they continue to run the ball well early, they should find success against the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State has yet to prove they can stop the run this season. They are currently allowing over 200 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Lesser opponents like South Dakota State and Tulsa found success on the ground against them and their front seven was a sieve when they played Utah and Arkansas.
Kansas State’s combination of gap scheme runs and option looks give linebackers fits when trying to defend them. Last season, linebackers earned a 42.0 run defense grade when facing Kansas State. One of the keys to BYU’s win last week was that their linebackers earned a respectable 66.1 run defense grade, the third-best mark against the Wildcats since the start of last season.
Oklahoma State linebackers have struggled this season. They own a 62.1 run-defense grade that is the fourth-lowest in the Power Five. The brunt of that responsibility falls on Nickolas Martin and Jeff Roberson, who both have posted run-defense grades in the 60.0s so far this season. Those two players will be the key to forcing Kansas State into obvious passing situations, where Avery Johnson has struggled to succeed without play action this season.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma State has the ball (Max): Will the 2023 version of Ollie Gordon II ever return?
Gordon entered this season as our No. 2 player in college football after his Doak Walker Award-winning sophomore campaign. That year, he led the nation in rushing yards (1,732) while placing second in rushing touchdowns (21) and yards after contact (1,056).
To say Gordon’s disappointed so far as a junior would be an understatement. While he’s tied for sixth in the country in carries (76), he’s only 70th in rushing yards (236). He now has three straight games with fewer than 50 rushing yards after having only four all of last season. The offensive line has also done him no favors as he’s averaging just 0.6 yards before contact per attempt, the ninth-lowest among FBS running backs.
It won’t get much easier against a Kansas State defense that’s 31st in yards per attempt allowed (3.9) and only gives up 0.9 yards before contact on average. The Cowboys need Gordon to become the superstar he was last season or else the offense will continue to be one-dimensional with just an above-average passing game.
Predictions
Max: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma State 24
This game will come down to who can run the ball better. I believe Kansas State’s three-headed monster in its backfield will do more than Ollie Gordon II, who’s had a very slow start to his season.
Dalton: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 20
Both teams are coming off a tough loss, but Kansas State has a more clear identity and the Cowboys’ defense has not played well this season, especially against the run.
No. 15 Louisville Cardinals at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 PM EST on Peacock)
Storyline to know: Notre Dame probably can’t afford to lose again
The Fighting Irish backed themselves into a corner by losing to Northern Illinois a couple of weeks ago. Since Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference, it cannot automatically clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff by winning a conference title. The Fighting Irish also only play two currently-ranked teams the rest of the year, so its strength of schedule likely won’t be as strong as the other teams fighting for at-large bids.
There’s a good chance that a two-loss Notre Dame squad isn’t enough to make the playoff, so the Fighting Irish are essentially walking a tightrope the rest of the season.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Dalton): Can Riley Leonard balance the Notre Dame offense?
When the Fighting Irish have the football, we will see a battle of strengths. Notre Dame currently ranks ninth in rushing grade. The core of the Fighting Irish's offense is the rushing abilities of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard.
Louisville, meanwhile, owns the third-best run defense grade in the nation, and the Cardinals just held a terrific Georgia Tech attack to just 98 yards on 36 carries. Their defensive line, led by players like Ashton Gillotte, Rene Konga, and Tramel Logan, has been fantastic against the run. So far, they have played at an elite level.
Georgia Tech responded by leaning on Haynes King and their vertical passing game. King played an excellent game, but Louisville was satisfied with their balanced team effort and victorious result.
The problem for Notre Dame is that, unlike Georgia Tech, they have one of the least explosive passing attacks in the nation.
Riley Leonard, 2024 stats with FBS ranks
| Passing Grade | 58.4 | 125th |
| Non-Play Action Passing Grade | 58.0 | T-111th |
| Clean Pocket Passing Grade | 69.5 | T-110th |
| 10+ yard Passing Grade | 48.2 | 149th |
Riley Leonard and the Fighting Irish offense have been incapable of providing their excellent rushing attack and defense with complementary production. This was a problem for Notre Dame in last year’s matchup between these two teams as well. The Cardinals held Notre Dame to just 81 rushing yards. Sam Hartman tried to carry the Fighting Irish to a victory but finished the game with a 50.8 passing grade and three interceptions.
Louisville is sure to lock in on Notre Dame’s run game again, but the Cardinals rank 103rd in the nation in coverage grade this season. If Riley Leonard can’t find some sort of spark through the air, we could see a similar result as last year’s matchup.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Max): Can Louisville establish the run?
Louisville’s offense has been one of the most efficient in college football so far this season. Among FBS teams, the Cardinals are sixth in EPA per play, fourth in yards per play and eighth in offensive grade. Louisville has been very balanced as well, placing among the nation’s top-15 offenses in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush.
It’s the latter that’ll likely need to carry the Cardinals in this game. That’s because Notre Dame’s defense has been stellar against the pass this season, placing third in EPA per play on such plays while having the second-best team coverage grade in the nation. With superstar defensive backs like Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, it’s nearly impossible to consistently get open on the Fighting Irish. However, Notre Dame’s run defense is just 40th in EPA per play, allowing 4.3 yards per attempt (55th).
Louisville will likely need its committee backfield and offensive line to carry this team to victory.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 27, Louisville 23
Notre Dame’s defense steps up and keeps the Fighting Irish’s playoff aspirations alive.
Dalton: Louisville 24, Notre Dame 20
Louisville’s balanced effort, especially their run defense, against Georgia Tech was incredibly impressive. If that continues and Tyler Shough stays composed, the Cardinals get a big road win.
Colorado Buffaloes at UCF Knights (3:30 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: A good barometer game for Colorado
It’s difficult to gauge just how good Colorado is this season. The Buffaloes’ three wins have come against teams that are either aren’t FBS schools or are outside the top-80 of PFF’s power rankings: North Dakota State, Colorado State (108th) and Baylor (83rd). Colorado’s one loss came to Nebraska, who’s 57th in that ranking and beat the Buffaloes by 18 points.
Colorado has improved some of its biggest issues defensively and has two of the best players in college football in Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, but there are still significant issues up front on the offensive line that can hold this team back from Big 12 contention. This week against UCF, the No. 49 team in our power ranking, will help show just where the Buffaloes stand in the conference.
Matchup to watch when UCF has the ball (Dalton): UCF’s dynamic rushing attack vs. Colorado’s potentially emerging run defense
Led by star running back RJ Harvey, UCF is currently leading the FBS in rush yards per game. The Knights also rank fifth in rushing grade. Excluding sacks, they’ve rushed for over 1,100 yards in their three games. Gus Malzahn is a master of creating opportunities in space for his playmakers.
The common perception is that this would be a huge mismatch for a Colorado defense that ranked 122nd in run defense grade last season. The results through the Buffaloes’ first four games may tell a different story.
Colorado run defense:
| Run Defense Grade | 15th |
| LB Run Defense Grade | 3rd |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | 39th |
| Run Stops | 14th |
Colorado attacked the transfer portal this offseason with the idea of improving in the trenches. The Buffaloes acquired a ton of players in their front seven who were productive run defenders on their previous teams. That production has carried into Boulder.
Colorado currently has 12 players who have played at least 30 run defense snaps this season and earned at least a 70.0 run defense grade. Last season, the Buffaloes had four, and three of those players played less than 70 run-defense snaps across the entire season. Travis Hunter being their most consistent run defender was not a formula for success.
Transfer defensive linemen like Samuel Okunlola, Chidozie Nwankwo, B.J. Green, and Shane Cokes have all been solid against the run so far. The most shocking development, though, has been the play of their linebackers.
LaVonta Bentley, one of the few holdovers from last year, currently holds an 85.3 run-defense grade. That’s a massive improvement from last season’s 47.8 mark. Charlotte transfer Nikhai Hill-Green has seen heavier usage of late and responded by posting a 92.1 run defense grade that leads the Power Five. In tandem, they are playing incredibly sound yet aggressive football.
They still need some work when it comes to stopping quarterbacks from running the ball, but Colorado’s has vastly improved its run defense from last season. If the Buffaloes are up to a huge task against a dangerous UCF attack, their defensive front could be the reason they come away victorious.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Colorado’s offensive line hold up just enough?
As Dalton illustrated, Colorado significantly improved its physicality on defense. However, there are still issues in the trenches offensively. The Buffaloes have allowed a pressure on 35.7% of their dropbacks this season, the eighth-worst mark among Power Four schools. Their 17 sacks allowed are tied for the fourth-most in the country.
If Colorado keeps Shedeuer Sanders clean, their passing attack becomes one of the most explosive in college football. His 93.1 PFF grade when kept clean is third among FBS quarterbacks. Sanders’ best trait is his ability to read and dissect a defense to find any of his talented pass-catchers who become open. The offensive line’s struggles to protect him essentially nerfs that attribute.
UCF’s been below average in terms of getting after the quarterback this season. The Knights are just 77th among FBS defenses in pressure rate (31.1%) while their two sacks are the fewest among Power Four ones. Their blitz rate (106th) and stunt rate (76th) are also well below average, so it’ll be on Colorado’s offensive line to win their head-to-head matchups.
Predictions
While Colorado has some difficulties with UCF’s run game, it protects Shedeur Sanders enough for the Buffaloes to pull off the upset.
Colorado’s run defense is much improved. If they can make this game about the quarterbacks, they hold a big advantage. Colorado gets a season-changing win.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: The biggest game of the year so far
Saturday’s matchup between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide isn’t just the biggest of the weekend, it’s the biggest of the 2024 season so far. It’s the first time that two top-five teams are squaring off with arguably college football’s two best coaches in Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer. It also features two quarterbacks who have Heisman Trophy and first-round aspirations in Carson Beck and Kalen DeBoer. Not to mention, the winner of this blockbuster will likely unseat Texas as the new top-ranked team in the country.
Grab your popcorn. This is going to be special.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Can Georgia thrive in obvious passing situations?
Georgia loses great players via graduation and the NFL Draft every year, but losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey has had a serious impact on their passing game this season. As a team, the Bulldogs ranked seventh in receiving grade last season. This year they rank 72nd.
When the Bulldogs have gotten their run game going and are able to lean on their play action game, they’ve been very efficient on offense. However, their success severely drops off when they get in true dropback situations.
Georgia Non-Play Action Metrics:
| Team Grade | 60.5 | 100th |
| Passing Grade | 54.4 | 113th |
| Receiving Grade | 58.7 | T-106th |
| EPA/Play | 0.110 | 44th |
Georgia has not performed well when it has had to drop back and win obvious passing situations. Carson Beck currently owns a below-average 55.7 passing grade in non-play action scenarios. That’s a massive dropoff from his 88.5 grade last season. In last year’s SEC Championship game versus Alabama, Beck posted a 56.3 non-play action passing grade.
The concerning part is that the Bulldogs have yet to play a team playing as well in coverage as Alabama. So far, Georgia has faced an FCS opponent in Tennessee Tech along with Kentucky and Clemson, who respectively rank 58th and 60th in coverage grade this season.
Conversely, Alabama ranks 12th in coverage grade. The Crimson Tide ranks inside the top seven in coverage grade and EPA per play allowed against non-play action passes. The Crimson Tide haven’t intercepted many passes, but they are elite at shutting opponents down.
Alabama has allowed just three passes to gain at least 15 yards this season. The Crimson Tide's 2.89 yards per coverage snap paces the FBS by nearly half a yard. They’ve allowed the third-lowest percentage of first downs and touchdowns in the nation. They lost Nick Saban, but this is still an extremely tough unit to beat, especially with their safeties, Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore, playing the way they are.
Georgia is struggling when it doesn’t use play-action. The Bulldogs are struggling on third down. There will be obvious passing situations where Beck and his receivers need to make plays through the teeth of Alabama’s coverage. That set of plays could define this game.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can Georgia speed up Jalen Milroe?
The book is out on Jalen Milroe. If you give him time in the pocket to find open receivers downfield, good luck. He’s willing to stand there for as long as it takes to find an open receiver before uncorking a deep ball with the rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder. Both his average depth of target (12.5 yards) and average time to throw (3.03 seconds) are among the 20 highest marks in the country this season. The year before, he was top-five in both categories.
If you force him to get rid of the ball quickly though, that’s where he has far more issues.
Jalen Milroe’s passing splits over the last two seasons:
| Situation | Passing grade (Rank among FBS QBs) |
| Under Pressure | 43.2 (121st) |
| Kept Clean | 91.0 (14th) |
| Blitzed | 63.2 (107th) |
| Not Blitzed | 89.0 (14th) |
Kirby Smart seemingly knew this in last year’s SEC title game as the Bulldogs blitzed Milroe on 48.3% of his dropbacks, generating a pressure on 41.4% of them. That caused Milroe to post just a 50.2 passing grade, his lowest of the entire season.
Smart would be… well, smart to have the same game plan against Milroe and force him to get rid of the ball quickly.
Predictions
This game is truly a coin flip. But with Nick Saban now gone, Kirby Smart will show why he’s the best coach in college football as he beats Alabama for the second time in seven tries.
Dalton: Alabama 27, Georgia 20
Neither team is firing on all cylinders, but Alabama’s defense and run game make the difference in a very physical matchup.
No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30 PM EST on NBC)
Storyline to know: Two undefeated teams in the Big Ten square off
Both Penn State and Illinois are unbeaten as they head into this primetime showdown. For the Nittany Lions, their 3-0 record was expected. They started the year as the No. 8 team in the AP poll and played three schools who are outside the top-50 of PFF’s power ranking: West Virginia (55th), Bowling Green (86th) and Kent State (124th).
Illinois’ 4-0 start is far more surprising. The Fighting Illini haven’t sported that record since the 2011 season and they entered the year with a win total set at just 5.5. They already have two victories over top-25 teams in Kansas and Nebraska. The only other school who’s done that is Tennessee.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Drew Allar and Andy Kotelnicki vs. Illinois’ single-high safety defenses
Illinois is notorious for their high percentage of single-high defenses. The Fighting Illini's aggressive nature is such that they use a ton of man coverage and five-man pressures. Those tendencies dare opponents to either be more physical than they are or to take vertical shots downfield.
Single-high defenses caused Drew Allar and Penn State a lot of problems last season. Under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, though, the Nittany Lions have so far appeared to solve that problem.
Penn State vs. Single-high Defenses:
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 |
| Offense Grade | T-68th | 7th |
| Passing Grade | 77th | 23rd |
| Receiving Grade | 107th | 1st |
| EPA/Play | 77th | 3rd |
Penn State has gone from a below average unit against single-high defenses last year to an elite one this year. Andy Kotelnick has done an incredible job of using formations and motions in order to manipulate defenses into the looks that he wants. He’s also maximized Drew Allar and the rest of Penn State’s personnel in a manner that never occurred last season.
Contrast that with an Illinois defense that runs single-high looks at a top five rate, and does so very effectively. The Fighting Illini rank inside the top 25 in pass-rush grade and coverage grade while in a single-high look despite already facing tough opponents like Kansas and Nebraska.
Players decide games, but we will see an extremely fun schematic matchup between Andy Kotelnicki and Illinois defensive coordinator Aaron Henry on Saturday night.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Max): Can Illinois give Luke Altmyer time against Penn State’s pass rush?
If you just look at PFF grades, Luke Altmyer has been one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country this season. In 2023, he was 96th among FBS signal-callers with a 69.4 grade. So far in 2024, he’s 18th in the nation with an 86.9 score.
While Altmyer certainly has improved in his second year as the Fighting Illini’s starter, his breakout is interlinked with Illinois drastically improving in pass protection. The Fighting Illini were 117th in the nation in pass-blocking grade last season. They’re currently tied for 35th this year. Altmyer’s a quarterback who performs at an elite level when kept clean as well, placing fourth among FBS quarterbacks in PFF grade on such plays (93.0). He’s far less effective under pressure, as his 43.2 PFF grade is just 103rd in the country.
Penn State’s defensive line features two top-150 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board in edge defenders Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, with Carter being a top-15 player. So far this season, the Nittany Lions are 10th in the FBS in team pass-rushing grade (79.4) and will give Illinois’ offensive line its toughest test yet.
Predictions
Max: Penn State 28, Illinois 21
It won’t quite be the nine-overtime thriller we saw from these two teams the last time they squared off in Happy Valley, but Penn State (17.5-point favorites) is able to pull off a closer win at home than the oddsmakers would anticipate.
Dalton: Penn State 30, Illinois 24
Luke Altmyer and Illinois are a tougher opponent than many believe. Penn State is much improved on offense, though, and Allar and Kotelnicki make the difference in a Nittany Lions victory.
Arizona Wildcats at No. 10 Utah Utes (10:15 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: The status of Cam Rising
After suffering a finger injury on his throwing hand against Baylor in Week 2, Utah star quarterback Cam Rising was questionable all week leading up to its game against Oklahoma State. Most, including Utah players like wide receiver Dorian Singer, expected him to play and he was even seen warming up pregame. But just 20 minutes before kickoff, head coach Kyle Whittingham decided to roll with true freshman Isaac Wilson as Rising still wasn’t 100 percent.
While the Utes still won that game without Rising, his injury status is the biggest storyline heading into this week’s clash with Arizona, who’s coming off a bye week after being dominated by Kansas State a couple weeks ago.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Tetairoa McMillan against the world
Tetairoa McMillan is arguably the best wide receiver in college football. Through three games, he’s earned an outstanding 85.8 receiving grade and racked up 453 yards through the air. The Wildcats' main problem, however, is that nobody else on their team has even 100 receiving yards to this point. McMillan is a superstar, but the team doesn’t have the depth of weaponry that it did last season.
Arizona’s offense has essentially been Noah Fifita and McMillan trying to will them toward the endzone. Quali Conley has been respectable in the run game, but he isn’t likely to dominate games on his own.
The problem this has caused is that opposing defenses are unafraid to challenge the Wildcats in man coverage. They have the option of bracketing McMillan and making someone else beat them, or they play one-on-one across the board and essentially dare Arizona to throw to McMillan every single play.
Utah runs a reasonably high rate of Cover-1 and has been very successful in doing so, running a top 20 coverage grade. McMillan had a big game against the Utes last season, but the Wildcats’ supporting cast has to be better for them to win this time.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Micah Bernard against Arizona’s run defense
While he got his second career win this past Saturday, Isaac Wilson was hardly the reason for the Utes’ offensive success. The younger brother of Zach Wilson posted just a 35.8 passing grade in the victory with no big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays.
Instead, Utah relied on running back Micah Bernard for most of its offensive production. The senior had 26 carries for 186 yards against the Cowboys, leading the nation with 142 yards after contact in Week 4. If Rising is still out or if his throwing ability is still hindered, the Utes will likely once again need Bernard to carry their offense.
Arizona’s run defense has been shaky this year, placing 80th in team run-defense grade (73.1) and 99th in yards per attempt allowed (5.3). However, most of the Wildcats’ issues came to teams with quarterbacks who had excellent mobility: New Mexico’s Devon Dampier and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. They’re each among the nation’s top-15 signal-callers in rushing yards this season. While Wilson and Rising certainly aren’t statues, their mobility doesn’t need to be game planned for quite like Dampier and Johnson. If Arizona only has to focus on stopping Bernard, its front seven should theoretically perform much better in run defense.
Predictions
With Rising’s health still in doubt and Arizona having two weeks to prepare, the Wildcats pull off a massive road upset and reestablish themselves as a Big 12 contender.
Utah has lost one home game since the start of 2021. Arizona has looked incredibly thin on offense. As they almost always do, Utah finds a way to win.
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