- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: The matchup between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Kenyan Drake at running back, Terry McLaurin at wide receiver, Hayden Hurst at tight end and New Orleans Saints at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 11.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 9.6 | Josh Allen | BUF | CLV | 26.6 | 8,500 | 25.0 | 9,200 |
| 8.2 | Dak Prescott | DAL | MIN | 20.5 | 6,600 | 19.0 | 7,500 |
| 8.1 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | CAR | 24.7 | 8,400 | 23.4 | 8,400 |
| 7.7 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | IND | 24.7 | 8,200 | 23.2 | 8,800 |
| 6.1 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | DAL | 19.2 | 6,100 | 17.8 | 7,600 |
| 5.9 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | CHI | 21.4 | 5,500 | 19.9 | 7,200 |
| 5.4 | Daniel Jones | NYG | DET | 21.7 | 5,700 | 20.4 | 7,800 |
| 5.4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 22.0 | 6,800 | 20.6 | 8,300 |
| 5.1 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | CIN | 17.3 | 5,300 | 16.3 | 6,900 |
| 5.1 | Matthew Stafford | LA | NO | 18.2 | 5,500 | 17.0 | 6,700 |
| 4.8 | Justin Fields | CHI | ATL | 20.1 | 7,600 | 19.0 | 8,700 |
| 4.2 | Jared Goff | DET | NYG | 15.5 | 5,400 | 14.6 | 6,800 |
| 4.0 | Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 16.4 | 5,600 | 15.2 | 7,000 |
| 3.5 | Davis Mills | HST | WAS | 17.4 | 5,200 | 16.1 | 6,500 |
| 3.3 | Russell Wilson | DEN | LV | 18.1 | 5,800 | 17.1 | 6,900 |
| 3.0 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 14.3 | 5,000 | 13.5 | 6,700 |
| 2.8 | Matt Ryan | IND | PHI | 16.3 | 5,200 | 15.2 | 7,100 |
| 2.3 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | HST | 18.5 | 5,300 | 17.4 | 6,800 |
| 2.3 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | BUF | 15.8 | 5,400 | 14.8 | 6,700 |
| 2.0 | Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 15.2 | 5,100 | 14.3 | 6,500 |
| 1.7 | Andy Dalton | NO | LA | 16.8 | 5,300 | 15.8 | 6,600 |
| 0.6 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | BLT | 15.3 | 5,000 | 14.2 | 6,400 |
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