- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Kenneth Walker at running back, JuJu Smith-Schuster at wide receiver, Mike Gesicki at tight end and the Kansas City Chiefs defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 12.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 12.7 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | HST | 25.5 | 6,900 | 23.8 | 8,300 |
| 10.5 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | JAX | 23.2 | 8,000 | 21.9 | 8,200 |
| 8.7 | Joe Burrow | CIN | TEN | 22.9 | 6,700 | 21.2 | 8,600 |
| 6.4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | ARZ | 20.4 | 7,000 | 19.1 | 7,900 |
| 6.3 | Geno Smith | SEA | LV | 20.0 | 6,000 | 18.8 | 7,600 |
| 5.7 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | NO | 18.5 | 5,600 | 17.4 | 6,800 |
| 5.4 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | LAC | 20.2 | 6,800 | 19.0 | 7,800 |
| 5.4 | Tom Brady | TB | CLV | 22.5 | 5,800 | 20.7 | 7,400 |
| 5.4 | Derek Carr | LV | SEA | 18.4 | 5,700 | 17.1 | 7,300 |
| 5.1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | LA | 24.8 | 8,200 | 23.3 | 9,000 |
| 4.6 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | CIN | 18.4 | 5,400 | 17.5 | 7,100 |
| 4.3 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BLT | 18.3 | 5,500 | 17.1 | 6,900 |
| 3.2 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | WAS | 16.7 | 5,500 | 15.8 | 7,000 |
| 3.1 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | TB | 19.1 | 5,400 | 17.7 | 6,900 |
| 2.6 | Kyle Allen | HST | MIA | 16.8 | 4,800 | 15.7 | 6,100 |
| 2.4 | Sam Darnold | CAR | DEN | 15.8 | 4,900 | 14.9 | 6,400 |
| 2.0 | Mike White | NYJ | CHI | 16.9 | 4,900 | 15.8 | 6,200 |
| 1.8 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | ATL | 18.1 | 5,300 | 17.1 | 6,500 |
| 1.7 | Bryce Perkins | LA | KC | 16.0 | 5,000 | 15.2 | 6,600 |
| 1.6 | Russell Wilson | DEN | CAR | 17.9 | 5,400 | 17.0 | 6,700 |
| 1.6 | Justin Fields | CHI | NYJ | 17.3 | 7,400 | 16.2 | 8,500 |
| 0.3 | Andy Dalton | NO | SF | 15.8 | 5,300 | 14.9 | 6,700 |
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