• Christian McCaffrey is the easy choice at 1.01: McCaffrey is in a tier of his own, making him the clear pick first overall.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league-winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year but can be drafted a round later.
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Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 10-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking first.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, August 29
Round 1, Pick 1: Draft a running back
The clear top pick is Christian McCaffrey. There is no need to overthink it this year.
Top Target: Christian McCaffrey (Player Profile)
McCaffrey should be the 1.01 because he is far ahead of his competition. He has the right combination of volume and efficiency in both the run and pass game, as well as continuity with everyone on the offense. Like any player, there is risk, but given how far apart McCaffrey is from all other running backs, even worse production could still lead to an RB1 season. He was relied on in the run game more than in the last couple of seasons, and he matched the increased volume with increased efficiency. He was among the top running backs in the run game in every volume and efficiency metric. When he has a perfectly blocked play, he’s averaged an absurd 9.0 yards per carry over the last three seasons.
Possible Targets: Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry
Round 2, Pick 20: Draft a quarterback
There's a risk of missing out on the top four quarterbacks if one isn't selected at this point, and none would be a good value at the next turn. Although it’s slightly earlier than their ADP, it's worth it since there's plenty of value to be found at other positions in later rounds.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at both passing, elite at rushing and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss, but the Buffalo Bills will now need to depend more heavily on Allen, allowing his fantasy production to remain high.
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