• A top-five wide receiver is likely to fall: With three running backs typically selected among the top six picks, at least two elite wide receivers should be available at Pick No. 7.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league-winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year but can be drafted a round later.
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Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 10-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking seventh.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 29
Round 1, Pick 7: Draft a wide receiver
In most leagues, the top three running backs are selected in the top six picks, making the value in the second half of the first round at wide receiver. While Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley both have ADPs in the later part of the first round, they are both older players who had their best season a few years ago. There is reason to be optimistic about them this year, but they also might not return to glory. The far safer play is picking a wide receiver in the first round.
Top Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Player Profile)
In 2022, St. Brown posted excellent numbers in every statistic aside from routes run per game, but the Detroit Lions fixed that in 2023 by keeping him on the field more often. This led to more routes per game and more production in general. He was also targeted in the red zone more frequently, a significant reason why he recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time. St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions' run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Round 2, Pick 14: Draft a running back
The only viable options here are at running back and wide receiver, as the top quarterbacks and tight ends typically aren't selected until the end of the second or start of the third round. I lean toward running back in this spot due to the difficulty of finding value at the position in the next few rounds.
Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs (Player Profile)
Gibbs consistently excelled in ideal situations. On perfectly blocked plays, when he could follow his intended point of attack and against seven or fewer men in the box, he ranked between the 95th and 99th percentile in PFF rushing grade. He finished eighth in PPR points last season. It’s hard for him to reach the Christian McCaffrey level without more rushing attempts per game, but there is reason to believe his fantasy points can improve with either more touches, improved production in the receiving game and/or the offensive line helping him even more than before.
Possible Targets: Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, Kyren Williams, De'Von Achane, James Cook
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