• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): In a game filled with Pro Bowlers and future Hall of Famers, the highest-graded player going into this game is none other than Lamar Jackson. The expectation is that Jackson will win his second MVP award this year, as he led the Ravens to a 13-3 record (he sat out Week 18) and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
• Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7): There isn’t a more complete edge rusher in the NFL than Nick Bosa, and he proved that again last week against the Green Bay Packers. Despite facing one of the up-and-coming stars at right tackle (Zach Tom), Bosa posted seven pressures, five hurries and two run stops. He had a 21.2% pass-rush win rate and was all over the field for the 49ers.
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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Ravens SS Kyle Hamilton
By his standards, Kelce had a “fine” regular season, but he's really turned things up in the playoffs. Against the Buffalo Bills, he caught five passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns to help the Chiefs advance. He looks healthier than he did at any point in the regular season and is back to being a dynamic weapon for the Chiefs.
Nonetheless, he is in for quite the test this week as he’ll see a ton of Kyle Hamilton. Standing at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Hamilton has the size and athleticism to match up with any tight end in the NFL. Hamilton had the second-highest PFF coverage grade in the NFL this season (90.2) and excels in mid-field zone coverage.
Don’t expect these two players to be lined up with one another on every snap but look for Kelce to see a ton of Hamilton on Sunday. This should be a fantastic battle between one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history and an emerging star at safety.
Highest-graded player: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (90.9)
In a game filled with Pro Bowlers and future Hall of Famers, the highest-graded player going into this game is none other than Lamar Jackson. The expectation is that Jackson will win his second MVP award this year, as he led the Ravens to a 13-3 record (he sat out Week 18) and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Jackson was incredible in the divisional round, rushing for 100 yards while scoring four touchdowns. He was in complete control of the game and has never looked more comfortable in the playoffs. This will be the biggest game of Jackson’s career, but this is the best he’s ever played. Look for Jackson to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. And don’t be surprised if he outplays him, either.
Best bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-110)
It's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, especially in the playoffs. It’s even harder to do that when they are getting 3.5 points against the Ravens. Mahomes has a career playoff record of 13-3 with two losses against Tom Brady. Just blindly betting on the Chiefs and the Mahomes since 2018 has been highly profitable.
Baltimore’s defense has been incredible this season, but it has struggled a bit against elite quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams lit up the Ravens, only to fall short in overtime. The Chiefs aren’t quite as dynamic as the Rams, but they should be able to move the ball. Expect this game to be really close, which is why Chiefs +3.5 is the best bet on the board.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Matchup to watch: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. Lions CB Cameron Sutton
One of the biggest mismatches heading into this game is the 49ers receivers against the Lions cornerbacks—specifically, Brandon Aiyuk against Cameron Sutton. Aiyuk finished the 2023 season as PFF’s No. 2 graded receiver, catching 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. He has really improved as a route runner and is now one of the most complete receivers in the game.
The Lions have struggled to stop opposing receivers this year, especially No. 1 receivers on the outside. Just last week, Mike Evans caught eight passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. And in the week prior, Puka Nacua caught nine passes for 181 yards and a score. They’ve given up a ton of huge performances all season to top-flight receivers and it won’t be getting any easier for the Lions this week.
Regardless of whether Deebo Samuel plays, look for Aiyuk to have a monster playoff performance. However, if Sutton can slow him down, the Lions will have a chance to steal this game.
Highest-graded player: 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (92.7)
There isn’t a more complete edge rusher in the NFL than Nick Bosa, and he proved that again last week against the Green Bay Packers. Despite facing one of the up-and-coming stars at right tackle (Zach Tom), Bosa posted seven pressures, five hurries and two run stops. He had a 21.2% pass-rush win rate and was all over the field for the 49ers.
Bosa will face his toughest competition of the season this week, taking on Penei Sewell. You can make a case that Sewell has been the NFL’s best offensive lineman this season and has only gotten better in the postseason. Bosa vs. Sewell will be must-see TV on Sunday.
Best bet: 49ers -7 (-110)
The Packers nearly upset the 49ers in San Franciso last week, but that hasn't shaken our confidence here. The 49ers are still the best team in the NFC and have a variety of ways that they can win a game. It'll be a tad harder for San Francisco if Deebo Samuel (shoulder) doesn't play, but the 49ers still have several other All-Pro weapons they can lean on to win on offense.
Nevertheless, the reason that you should have confidence in taking the 49ers -7 against the Lions on Sunday is due to their defense. The Lions love to throw the ball in the middle of the field to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Jared Goff will throw slants and digs all day long, but that won't work as well against the 49ers.
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are two of the best coverage linebackers in the league and can erase the middle of the field for opposing offenses. The way to beat the 49ers is to throw the ball down the field, outside the hashes. And that's just not where Goff has thrived in his career.
Look for the 49ers to keep the Lions in check on Sunday and ultimately win by double-digits at home. After shaking off some of the rust in the divisional round, look for San Francisco to put together a complete game this week.
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