• Texans -1.5 to (-2.5): The Texans present the Colts with a very difficult matchup in this key AFC South battle. Back Houston to win this game at anything under a field goal and advance to the playoffs behind their explosive offense and underrated defense.
• A huge opportunity for QB C.J. Stroud: Stroud has catapulted the Texans to relevance in Year 1 of his career, largely due to his ability to create explosive plays in the passing game. Houston has generated these big plays at the third-highest rate in the league, which should spell trouble for a Colts defense that has surrendered explosive plays at a top-10 rate.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Leg 1 of the season finale has arrived and brings with it two games with massive playoff implications. In this article, we’ll be focusing on the matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, which is essentially a playoff game.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 47.5)
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud returned to the field last week and put together a solid performance as the Texans handled the Titans. Stroud has catapulted the Texans to relevance in Year 1 of his career, largely due to his ability to create explosive plays in the passing game. Houston has generated these big plays at the third-highest rate in the league, which should spell trouble for a Colts defense that has surrendered explosive plays at a top-10 rate.
A key factor in projecting Stroud’s play is the amount of zone coverage opposing defenses deploy. Stroud has really struggled when facing man coverage and ranks in just the 17th percentile against that scheme. However, Stroud has absolutely shredded zone coverage, producing 89th-percentile output.
Fortunately for Stroud, the Colts have lined up in zone coverage on 90% of their snaps, the highest rate in the NFL. With the luxury of facing his preferred defense on the vast majority of dropbacks, Stroud should be able to push the ball down the field and exploit this Colts secondary.
Houston has a similar schematic advantage on the defensive side of the ball against Gardner Minshew, who has been far better when facing man coverage this season. Like the Colts defense, the Texans have played zone at a well above-average rate this season, and Minshew will likely struggle to beat Houston’s zone-heavy schemes, as he hasn’t shown the ability to beat those all season.
This Texans defense is also heavily underrated coming into this game. After some early season struggles, this unit has really figured things out and has held opponents to the fourth-worst success rate since Week 13. Houston has been particularly good at stopping the run, which is more important than usual against an Indianapolis squad that relies heavily on their ground game.
The Texans pass rush has also taken massive steps forward, posting the third-best pass-rush win rate over the last five weeks. Against a Colts team dealing with significant injuries on the offensive line, look for Houston to dominate up front and pressure Minshew at a high rate.
Best Bet: Texans -1.5 to (-2.5)
The Texans present the Colts with a very difficult matchup in this key AFC South battle. Back Houston to win this game at anything under a field goal and advance to the playoffs behind their explosive offense and underrated defense.
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