• RB Breece Hall over 48.5 rush yards (-113 FanDuel) — Washington is expected to give up the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt in Week 16, and this drop in defensive strength should allow the Jets to commit to the run game.
• WR Justin Jefferson over 82.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel) — Justin Jefferson did not miss a beat in his first full game back from injury, putting up 82 yards against a weak Bengals secondary with backup QB Nick Mullens throwing the ball.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Our seven Week 15 bets produced a small profit, standing us in good stead for the NFL's Christmas slate.
New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito hit a 33-yard pass with two minutes left in a game they had no chance of winning to bust the under 32.5-yard longest completion bet, turning a good Sunday into an average Sunday. Fortunately, the island games produced good profits to return a winning week, as D’Ernest Johnson went under his rushing total for the Jags, and both D’Andre Swift and Tyler Higbee hit their overs.
We enter the Week 16 holiday slate with a 5% ROI over the season.
Washington Commanders @ New York Jets — RB Breece Hall over 48.5 Rush Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Breece Hall has struggled at times this season, partly due to the Jets' lack of strength at the quarterback position, which has allowed teams to stack the box to stop the run.
Still, this is a buy-low spot for Hall, who will be taking on a reeling Washington Commanders team that certainly doesn't pose as much of a threat as other teams on the Jets' slate over the last month.
The Jets' recent games against the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans would indicate that their schedule has not been as difficult as I am suggesting, but both of those teams have fielded exceptional run defenses this year, as have other recent opponents in the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
According to my model, Washington is expected to give up the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt in Week 16, and this drop in defensive strength should allow the Jets to commit to the run game.
We are all well aware of how explosive Breece Hall can be when given a bit of space, which he has not been afforded in the tough run lately.
Detroit Lions Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings: WR Justin Jefferson over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Justin Jefferson did not miss a beat in his first full game back from injury, putting up 82 yards against a weak Bengals secondary with backup QB Nick Mullens throwing the ball.
The star pass-catcher should see a similar workload against a Lions secondary that is being torched in high-scoring games and is now missing starting corner Jerry Jacobs.
The Lions' run defense has been significantly better than the one the Bengals offered up last week when Ty Chandler ran the ball 23 times. Detroit is also much more potent on offense, so the passing volume should be high for a Vikings offense that will have to score to keep up.
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