NFL Week 3 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for LAC-PIT: Buy the movement and lock in the under at 35.5. Expect a quick, low-scoring game.

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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click below to jump to a game:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. NEW YORK JETS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NYJ -7	NYJ -6.5	NYJ -6
Total	39.5	38.5	38.5

Spread: After dropping to 5.5 from the opener, the spread climbed back to 6.5 on Monday. Late Tuesday evening, a notable market influencer backed the Patriots, impacting the line.

Total: The total initially dipped to 37.5 before bouncing back to its opening number. It's now sitting at 38.5 across the board.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PIT -2.5	PIT -1.5	PIT -1.5
Total	39	37	35.5

Spread: Early consensus has the spread holding steady at its 1.5 opener, with both teams coming off road wins in tough travel spots. It briefly touched 2.5 before Chargers money came in. Expect it to close between 1 and 2.

Total: There's been steady action on the under, which opened a couple of points lower than the lookahead line. It's not surprising, as both teams have shown a strong preference for running the ball repeatedly.

Situational Factors: Advantage Steelers. This marks the second consecutive week the Chargers will fly cross-country for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff.

Buy/Sell: I'm buying the movement and locking in the under at 35.5. Expect a quick, low-scoring game.

CHICAGO BEARS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	IND -2.5	IND -2	IND -1.5
Total	46.5	44	43.5

Spread: There has been steady movement toward the Bears since the opener, largely influenced by the Colts' surprising Week 2 loss to the Malik Willis-led Packers as 3-point favorites. Expect the game to close with a spread between 1 and 2.

Total: Immediate action on the under pushed the total from 44 to as low as 42.5. There's been some market disagreement, with the number bouncing between 43 and 44 throughout Tuesday. Expect it to close in that range.

Buy/Sell: I'm selling the Bears movement and backing the Colts as a small favorite. I prefer a moneyline at -120 or better over a standard -1.5 at -110.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	HOU -4	HOU -3	HOU -2.5
Total	46.5	45	46

Spread: The Texans opening as a field goal favorite didn’t last long. The market quickly corrected, signaling that the Vikings shouldn't be 3-point home underdogs, especially after their outright win against the 49ers in a similar spot last week. Notably, Vikings money came in strong last weekend just before kickoff, making Minnesota's line movement something to watch for timing future bets.

Total: Slight movement towards the over has pushed the total up by a point, bringing it closer to the lookahead line. There are still plenty of 45.5s available, and if forced to choose, I'd lean toward the over at that number.

NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CLE -6.5	CLE -6.5	CLE -6
Total	39.5	38	39

Spread: The line has ticked down slightly in favor of the Giants, moving from 6.5 to 6, with minimal market activity since. A few 6.5s are still available.

Total: The total saw a 1-point increase shortly after opening and has remained steady since then.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -3.5	PHI -1.5	PHI -2.5
Total	47	49.5	49.5

Spread: All the early action has been on the Eagles, despite their MNF loss and the Saints' dominant performance. Currently, you’re either laying an expensive 2.5 with the Eagles or taking a costly 3 with the Saints.

Total: The total remains unchanged at 49.5 from the opener.

Situational Factors: There is a slight edge to the Saints with the Eagles coming off an MNF game.

Buy/Sell: I’m selling the Eagles support and buying the Saints as a 3-point home underdog. I prefer the +3 at -115 or better.

DENVER BRONCOS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TB -5.5	TB -7	TB -6.5
Total	43	40	40

Spread: Dropped from the touchdown opener down to 6.5 and has held steady at that number.

Total: It was initially well below the lookahead line, spending most of the week at 39.5. We've seen a small uptick to 40 as of early Wednesday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TEN -1.5	TEN -2	TEN -3
Total	39.5	36.5	36.5

Spread: Gradual support for the Titans has pushed the spread to 3 at most books, though a few 2.5s remain, likely not for long.

Total: No notable movement, holding steady at 36.5 across the board.

Buy/Sell: Buying the Titans at one of the remaining -2.5s. This marks the second straight week the market has faded the Packers' new QB situation.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LV -4.5	LV -7.5	LV -5.5
Total	40.5	38	41

Spread: Continued support for the Panthers, as we’ve seen each week this season, now driven by Bryce Young’s benching in favor of Andy Dalton. The market clearly views Dalton as a significant upgrade.

Total: The shift to Dalton is further reinforced by the total, which has jumped 3 points to 41 following the announcement. There’s resistance at 41, and it doesn’t seem likely to push past that number.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIA -1	SEA -6	SEA -4.5
Total	48	43	41.5

Spread: A significant adjustment due to Tua Tagovailoa’s injury saw the line open close to a touchdown in favor of the Seahawks. The market quickly corrected, bringing it down to 4.5 at most books.

Total: The total dropped from 43 to 41 before rebounding slightly to 41.5.

Situational Factors: A net-neutral situation, with a slight advantage to the Dolphins due to extra rest.

Buy/Sell: While the spread adjustment for Tua is appropriate, I believe the total should have dropped further. I’ll buy the under at 41.5, considering the initial lookahead of 48 was already inflated.

DETROIT LIONS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DET -4.5	DET -2.5	DET -3
Total	52	51	52.5

Spread: This is another spread hovering around the key number of 3. Expect to pay extra juice for the side you prefer. I anticipate this closing at 3.

Total: A pick release drove the total up 1.5 points, with last week’s offensive surge by the Cardinals fueling optimism for a potential shootout.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying the over at 52.5. The Bucs defense kept the Lions in check despite their injuries in the secondary. I expect a regression to the Lions' usual offensive output and will look for alternate overs in this game.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DAL -1	PK	BAL -1
Total	48	47	48.5

Spread: After opening at pick'em, the market has shifted, making Baltimore a small favorite heading into Dallas. Despite the flipped favorites, this is a minor 2-point move, one of the smallest adjustments you'll see on an NFL spread.

Total: A pick release bumped the total up 1.5 points from the opener, surpassing the lookahead line. Resistance came in at 49, preventing further movement.

Buy/Sell: Many might be hesitant to back the Ravens after last week's upset, but I’m buying in at -1 and expect Baltimore to close as a slightly larger favorite.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SF -4.5	SF -7	SF -7
Total	48.5	45.5	44.5

Spread: The spread initially hovered around 8 and briefly climbed higher at a few books before settling closer to the key number of 7. Currently, the market is split, with some books offering 7 and others at 7.5.

Total: The total initially dropped from the opening 45.5 after a significant downgrade from the lookahead of 48.5. It bottomed out at 43 before a pick release pushed it back to 44.5. The absence of Christian McCaffrey and uncertainty around Cooper Kupp have been key factors driving this total down.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -4	KC -4	KC -3.5
Total	47.5	45.5	46.5

Spread: The line reached KC -5 before settling at -4.5 before MNF. After the Falcons’ win, it re-opened at 3.5, with no significant movement since—3.5 across the board.

Total: The total initially jumped to 47 before retreating slightly to 46.5.

Situational Factor: The Falcons are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BUF -3.5	BUF -6	BUF -5.5
Total	47.5	45.5	45.5

Spread: Slight movement from 6 to 5.5, where it's remained since Monday morning.

Total: After briefly climbing to 46.5, the total has returned to the opening number.

Situational Factors: The Bills have extra rest following their Thursday night game.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -6.5	CIN -8.5	CIN -7.5
Total	47.5	49	46.5

Spread: The action has mostly been one-sided, pushing the line back down toward 7 after opening at 8.5 and briefly moving to 9. While it may not hit 7, expect the Bengals to be a popular teaser option.

Total: A pick release on the under moved the total from 48.5 to 46.5 on Wednesday afternoon.