NFL Week 4 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Monday night: Take the Dolphins moneyline, considering Tyler Huntley has an extra day to become acquainted with his new offense.

• Get ahead of the competition: Sign up for PFF+ to access PFF's betting dashboards, fantasy football start-sit optimizer, weekly fantasy rankings and more!

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click below to jump to a game:

DALLAS COWBOYS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DAL -5	DAL -4	DAL -5.5
Total	44	44	45

Spread: This line was pushed from 4 to 5.5 early Tuesday afternoon. There are primarily 5.5s across the board, but a couple of 6s have started to appear.

Total: There was a one-point adjustment up from the opener to 45. All three of Dallas’ games have gone over by a significant margin, while all three of the Giants' games have gone slightly under.

Buy/Sell: Buying into the over at 45. I believe this closes north of that number.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	45.5	44	42.5
Total	ATL -1.5	ATL -2	ATL -2.5

Spread: Within two minutes, the line dropped from 2 to 1.5. A handful of books moved to 1, but since then, it’s been Falcons money pushing it to 2.5.

Total: The total has ticked down from 44 to 43.5. A pick release continued to drive this down an additional point to 42.5.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PIT -1	PK	PIT -1.5
Total	39	38.5	40

Spread: Despite opening at a pick ‘em, the Steelers quickly became a small road favorite. They’ve gotten out to as far as 3, but most books have them between 1.5 and 2.

Total: A pick release pushed this total up to 40 from the 38.5 opener. It got as high as 40.5 but has remained firm at 40. Only one of these two teams' six games this year have gone over the total.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	45.5	44.5	45.5
Total	HOU -4.5	HOU -4	HOU -6.5

Spread: Strong market reaction to what we saw from the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. After opening at 4 Sunday night, this game reopened at 6.5 Tuesday morning before making its way to 7 in the afternoon. It's almost like the market has forgotten about Houston’s lopsided loss at Minnesota. We’re back below the 7 now, and it should stay there the rest of the way. I’ll be buying +7 if another one shows up.

Total: There was an initial one-point adjustment shortly after opening. A few books are still lagging behind, hanging 45s.

Situational Factors: The Texans will have the advantage, as the Jaguars are coming off a short rest from MNF and traveling for their second consecutive road game.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	44	42.5	43.5
Total	GB -2	GB -2	GB -2.5

Spread: The market is clearly optimistic that Jordan Love will return after his sprained MCL in Week 1. There’s a strong indication that this will close between 2.5 and 3. Each time it’s gotten to 3, it hasn’t lasted. A +3 on the Vikings would definitely be a buying opportunity if it resurfaces.

Total: One point of adjustment toward the over from the opener. I don’t think this one has reached its ceiling yet. Sam Darnold‘s appearance on the injury report might be keeping this in check for now.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying the over at 43.5. While the spread properly accounts for Love’s return, the total doesn’t. I expect this to close near 45.

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -5.5	CIN -5.5	CIN -4
Total	45	45	47

Spread: This reopened Tuesday morning at 4.5 and didn’t move until Wednesday afternoon down to 4. Some 3.5s are showing.

Total: A pick release fueled this massive movement up to as high as 48.5 before falling back down to 47. There are now some 46.5s signaling the initial release's impact on the market was an overreaction.

Situational Factors: The Panthers have a slight advantage, as the Bengals played on Monday night and are traveling to Carolina.

LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. CHICAGO BEARS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	41	40	41
Total	CHI -1	CHI -1.5	CHI -3

Spread: The Bears climbed from 1.5 to 3 since opening. There have been signs of life on the Rams, with buyback coming at 3.

Total: Steady action coming in on the over, driving it up a point from the opener. A total of 41 is likely where this one closes.

Buy/Sell: Selling the Bears money and buying the Rams at +3. Despite Cooper Kupp set to miss another week, this should close below 3.

DENVER BRONCOS VS. NEW YORK JETS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	38.5	40	39.5
Total	NYJ -8	NYJ -8	NYJ -7.5

Spread: This dropped a point, from opening to 7 before jumping back up to 7.5. The market wasn’t going to let this cross below a touchdown. There are 7.5s across the board now. Take the Jets in your teasers and move on.

Total: The total held at 38.5 most of the week before a pick release on Wednesday moved it as high as 40.

Situational Factors: This is a clear advantage spot for New York. The Broncos are returning to the East Coast for a second consecutive week for a 1:00 kickoff. The Jets will also have extra rest having played on Thursday Night Football.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -2.5	PHI -1	PHI -2
Total	45.5	45	44

Spread: Philadelphia got out as high as 3 before returning to 2.

Total: One point adjustment down from the opener, but 43.5s are starting to surface.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	49.5	50	50.5
Total	ARI -5	ARI -6	ARI -3.5

Spread: A multi-point adjustment after MNF has this spread approaching a field goal. A couple of books have moved all the way down to 3. Is this justified, or an overreaction to a win vs. a Bengals team struggling out of the gate?

Total: The total has stayed relatively flat, only moving up a half point.

Situational Factors: This is a cross-country trip for the Commanders on a short week.

Buy/Sell: It would be hard to walk away from MNF unimpressed with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, but this is an opportunity to sell high. I’m locking in a Cardinals -3 (-120).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	40.5	41	40.5
Total	SF -10	SF -11	SF -10

Spread: We’re back down to the original lookahead line of 10 after opening at 11. Injuries are piling up for the 49ers. Yet another week they’re expected to be without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.

Total: Consistent action has pushed this line down to 39 before some support showed up for the over and pushed the total back near the opening number.

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	38.5	39	37
Total	CLE -1	PK	LV -2

Spread: We have flipped favorites in this matchup. Las Vegas has taken consistent money since opening a pick ‘em.

Total: A pick release drove this total down from 39 to 37 first thing Monday morning. Money showed up at 37 to push it back up to 38. The market has since settled at 37.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -8.5	KC -6.5	KC -7.5
Total	39.5	39.5	40

Spread: This spread only spent a couple of minutes below a touchdown before climbing up to as high as 8.5. A slew of injuries to Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater and a Derwin James suspension are certainly contributing. A popular Telegram channel moved this from 8 to 7.5 on Wednesday evening. Use the Chiefs in the second half of your teaser with the Eagles.

Total: The initial move was down to 38.5 before it was pushed out to 40. Still a depressed total for a matchup we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in the mid-50s over the past few seasons.

BUFFALO BILLS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	45.5	46	46.5
Total	BAL -2.5	BAL -2.5	BAL -2.5

Spread: No 3s out there, and I wouldn’t expect to see one show. Baltimore initially dropped to 2 before coming back up to 2.5

Total: Nothing major here, as it is a half-point up from the opener.

TENNESSEE TITANS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	38	37.5	36.5
Total	TEN -1	MIA -1	MIA -1

Spread: The market likely remains in between the 1s, regardless of who starts at QB for the Dolphins.

Total: Continuous movement toward the under so far this week, having dropped a full point from 37.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the adjustment on the Dolphins from the lookahead line and lock in Miami on the ML at -104. I expect Tyler Huntley to start and play well. The extra day learning the playbook could go a long way here.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. DETROIT LIONS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	48	47	46.5
Total	DET -4.5	DET -4.5	DET -3.5

Spread: We’ve seen differing opinions on this game, moving the spread down to 3.5 and back up to 4.5 on multiple occasions. Lions -3.5 has emerged as the early consensus line.

Total: The total has bounced back and forth between 46.5 and 47 for the last couple of days. We’re now starting to see some 46s.