NFL Week 5 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement:This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Thursday Night Football: Buy the Bucs movement and lock in +114 on the moneyline. The Bucs steal a division game on the road. 

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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game

TB@ATL | NYJ@MIN | BUF@HOU | MIA@NE | IND@JAX | BAL@CIN CAR@CHI | CLE@WAS | LV@DEN | ARI@SF | NYG@SEA | GB@LAR | DAL@PIT | NO@KC

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

Spread: There has been consistent movement toward the Bucs as they dodged a handful of injuries to key personnel. There are 1.5s across the board ahead of TNF. 

Total: Within a few minutes of opening, the total quickly jumped from 42 to 44. Since then, it’s bounced between 43.5 and 44. 

Buy/Sell: Buying the Bucs movement and locking in +114 on the moneyline. The Bucs steal a division game on the road. 

NEW YORK JETS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Spread: The favorite flipped from the lookahead, and on Tuesday afternoon, the line briefly touched 3 at a couple of books. It has since been bet back below a field goal. While Aaron Rodgers appeared on the injury report, he is expected to be good to go in London.

Total: The market has settled, with the total hovering between 40 and 40.5.

Situational Factors: London games often offer an advantage to coaching staffs with experience, but both teams have made this trip in recent years.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying the Vikings at -2.5, with some books still offering it at flat -110. The Vikings should earn their fifth straight cover in London as they continue to be underrated in the market. Hopefully, you jumped on the Darnold MVP train early.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS

Spread: The Andy Dalton-led Panthers continue to garner market support. The spread has dropped a full point from the opener. Books remain split at 3.5 and 4, with key market-making books at 3.5. I don’t see this falling further to the key number of 3.

Total: Initial movement was on the over and reached as high as 43.5 before consistent action on the under moved the number down to 41. That’s where I expect it to close. Some slower-moving books still have a 42 available. Wind could play a role here, so that's something to watch for this weekend. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Spread: We’ve seen this spread touch 3 a handful of times this week. Each time, it’s been bet back down pretty quickly. You'll need to lay additional juice on either side of the 3 here. 

Total: Both offenses are coming off back-to-back impressive performances. Because of that, this total got as high as 51 on Monday. A pick release at the market's peak has driven this number back to 49. Both 48.5s and 49.5s are widely available. 

BUFFALO BILLS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS

Spread: Both teams have shared the title of 1-point favorites, but the market has started to settle and lean toward the Bills. Von Miller’s suspension news didn’t have the same market impact as we may have seen years ago. 

Total: This total hasn’t moved much, but it feels low. Both teams' injury reports suggest we could be in for a high-scoring game. In addition to the Von Miller suspension, the Bills have injuries in the secondary, and both of the Texans' top two running backs have yet to practice this week. Should they miss the game, Houston will be inclined to throw more. This is lining up to be the Texans' offensive explosion spot we’ve been waiting for since Week 1. 

Buy/Sell: I’m buying into this market in two ways: taking a parlay on the Bills moneyline and the over 47.5. Most books have this around +240 to +250. I’m backing the Bills to bounce back in a game where both teams are likely to rely heavily on the passing game.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Spread: The Jaguars have moved to 3-point favorites, largely due to Anthony Richardson's questionable status with an oblique injury. While there was some early buyback on the Colts when it first reached 3, Jaguars support has held steady, keeping the spread at the key number.

Total: The total briefly climbed to 47 in some spots but has since settled back down to the lookahead line of 46.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Spread: Injuries continue to pile up in Miami, leaving New England as a slight favorite. There hasn’t been much movement here, and I don’t see anything that can happen to move the needle much one way or the other. Most books are at -1, with a few down to a pick ‘em. 

Total: Similar story here, with little movement on the total. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Spread: After a significant adjustment from the lookahead, Commanders support pushed the line to 3.5 before it was brought back down to a field goal. It looks likely to close with an expensive 3 on the Commanders. While I’m not selling high on the Commanders this week, it’s worth noting that Jayden Daniels hasn’t faced a defense like Cleveland’s yet. Myles Garrett’s availability could make this matchup even more challenging for the rookie quarterback.

Total: The total opened nearly 3 points higher than the lookahead but has since steadily dropped to 43.5.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS

Spread: The Broncos were already gaining support in the market, but news of Davante Adams‘ hamstring injury pushed the line to a full field goal. Adams is unlikely to suit up on Sunday, and there's speculation he may not play again for the Raiders.

Total: With points being scarce in recent Broncos games, the total has dropped an additional point from the opener, and we're seeing some 35.5s.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying the under at 36, expecting it to drop further. While the spread adjusted for Adams' injury, the total hasn't fully factored it in yet.

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Spread: There was the slightest tick up to 7.5 after opening. The 49ers will be a popular teaser leg at this number. 

Total: The initial movement was up to 51 before a pick release on Tuesday afternoon, which pushed this number down a couple of points to 49. The total eventually settled in at 49.5 

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Spread: There has been one-way support on the Rams so far, pushing this down to a field goal from a 4-point opener. 

Total: The total ticked up a couple of points shortly after opening, and a pick release Wednesday morning continued to fuel the upward trajectory up to 49. That’s a pretty significant adjustment, but not one I’m entirely comfortable fading as an overreaction. There are still a handful of 48.5s lagging. 

NEW YORK GIANTS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Spread: The market is currently split between 6 and 6.5, but there’s been zero movement outside those numbers. 

Total: Steady action on the over has pushed this up to 43.5 and 44 at some books. We’ve yet to see much buyback on the under. I don’t see the market letting this get too much higher. 

Situational Factors: The Giants will have a few extra days rest to prepare for the cross-country flight. Slight advantage to the Giants. 

DALLAS COWBOYS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Spread: The Steelers are out to 2.5-point favorites, but we’ve yet to see any book flash a 3. If they do, they will disappear quickly. 

Total: It’s been an incremental climb to 44 throughout this week after opening at 42. A few books are at 44.5. 

Situational Factors: Slight advantage to the Cowboys with extra rest from last week's Thursday night game. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Spread: The openers have over-accounted for the Rashee Rice injury, opening 1.5 points lower than the lookahead. We’ve seen a half-point correction in favor of the Chiefs to 5.5. 

Total: It's a similar story here, as the total opened 3 points lower than the lookahead. We’ve since seen a 1.5-point adjustment up from the market low-water mark of 42.